Thread on my reaction to Trump’s decision to nix the Iran nuke deal. ✍️
For years, I have been a strong supporter of a nuke deal that would permanently block Iran’s pathway to atomic weapons. I supported Obama’s dual-track policy of diplomacy & pressure.
Since 2013, I have recommended fixing the fundamental flaws of the JPOA which became the JCPOA. They gave Iran patient pathways to nuke weapons, ICBMs, regional dominance & an economy immunized against peaceful sanctions pressure (“lethal Iranian-end state”).
I have also long recommended a maximum pressure campaign using all instruments of US national power including financial pressure predicated on the Iranian regime’s non-nuclear malign activities.
Today, Trump decided on a nix instead. It remains to be seen whether that strategy will actually include the effective implementation of a maximum pressure campaign (for example, how does this square with Trump’s desire to leave Syria?) — and whether “nix to a fix” will work.
I have concerns. It’s a high risk strategy with potentially big rewards if it can be successfully implemented but dangerous consequences if it isn’t.
I would've much preferred to see a US-E3 agreement first. This would have put the US in a stronger diplomatic position. I think the US & Europeans were close to getting this done.
In the meantime, I agree with President Macron about the importance now of working on a broader framework based on pre and post-2025 nuclear issues, missiles, and regional aggression.
In addition to addressing Iran’s destabilizing and dangerous activities in the Mideast, USG needs much greater focus on human rights, corruption & tools Iranians need to amplify their voices & to support their peaceful efforts to confront the regime.
Looking forward to working with my fellow Americans, regardless of party or position, who care deeply about U.S. security & want to solve this problem. **Character assassins need not apply.** -END-
