1.The basic assumption in DC, which I just visited, is that the JCPOA is unacceptable and will bring Iran to the nuclear threshold where it would be unstoppable.
2.The US administration assesses that the Iranian economy is vulnerable and that new sanctions will be very effective.The US hopes that Iran will then return to the negotiating table, concluding with a better deal.
3. An even better scenario in Trump’s circle, the regime in Tehran would collapse under the economic pressures.That being said, hope is not a strategy and planning several steps ahead is vital.
4.The Iranians may choose to stay in the agreement along with the Europeans, Russia and China. If the latters continue to invest in Iran, the Iranian economy will not collapse.
5.The Iranians have three options:
A - Preserve the agreement along with the Europeans, China, and Russia.
B- Return to the pre-2013 situation, i.e. enrichment in Natanz with up to 60k advanced centrifuges and 20% enrichment while remaining in the NPT.
A - Preserve the agreement along with the Europeans, China, and Russia.
B- Return to the pre-2013 situation, i.e. enrichment in Natanz with up to 60k advanced centrifuges and 20% enrichment while remaining in the NPT.
6. C- A more extreme option would be Iran’s withdrawal from the NPT and breaking out to the bomb.
7. It is difficult to assume that Trump will rush to stop the Iranian nuclear program, as he is well tuned to the American public that is loath to wage another war in the ME. And so, Israel will be the one left with the burden of militarily stopping Iran.
8.The red light from the Obama years is now off, but the mission is all ours.
