Thread by @Katulis

1- I'm finishing up a 2 week trip to the Middle East with a strong sense of foreboding & concern about even more troubles ahead on 4 key fronts: Syria, Yemen, Gaza & Jordan

2- On Syria, the tensions between Israel & Iran have escalated, as we see from the events of the past week. The key question is whether this escalation will spark a wider conflagration that draws more countries more deeply into Syria.

3 - Israel's concerns about the shifting landscape in Syria are not new - as I wrote about with a colleague last fall here
foreignpolicy.com/2017/11/17/isr…

4 - But there are many other fights occurring in Syria right now & the impact of these conflicts on the Syrian people continue to be devastating. The absence of a clear U.S. approach to Syria contributes to the problem, as I wrote with @neoluuj

nationalinterest.org/feature/strike…

5 - Whatever your view is on Trump's decision on the Iran nuclear deal, there remains a gaping hole and sense of confusion about America's approach in Syria. That's one of the key reasons why close U.S. partners like Israel & Jordan feel the need to coordinate closely with Russia

6 - On the Yemen war, based on what I heard, the parties involved in the conflict don't appear to be moving towards what is urgently needed - a deescalation & a serious diplomatic process. I heard the opposite - a horrible situation could get worse this summer there.

7 - On Gaza, the tensions remain high heading into next week's events & there seems to be a strong possibility of more conflict there. I visited the West Bank & next week may be a test for the Palestinian Authority security forces.

8 - Jordan remains resilient in the face of pressures coming from all directions. Many think tank analysts have written about the threats to Jordan & even predicted its collapse before - I've mostly disagreed with that pessimism.

9 - But on this trip to Jordan, I heard serious concerns about the domestic economic situation, the pressures coming from how the Palestinian situation is evolving & some worries about the potential impact of the next phase of the Syria conflict.

10 - Trump's move on Jerusalem put Jordan in an awkward & difficult position, as I wrote with @aawadall a few months ago
thehill.com/opinion/intern…

11 - But it's the internal economic pressures, combined with things like Trump's funding cuts of UNRWA, that could pose a major challenge for Jordan this year.
foreignpolicy.com/2018/02/02/the…

12 - The trajectory of the Syrian conflict - and the potential that the Assad regime might push south in the coming months - is also cause for concern in Jordan.

13 - Jordan is an important U.S. partner on multiple fronts & U.S. policy should take care to help Jordan preserve its stability in the rocky regional period that looks like is coming in the next few months:

americanprogress.org/issues/securit…

14 - On the broader regional dynamics, as we debate Trump's move on the Iran nuclear deal, the structural stability of the Middle East remains creaky & precarious.

15 - For years, events in the Middle East have been unpredictable. We now have a U.S. president who prides himself on injecting unpredictability into a range of situations.

This may not turn out well for our friends, including those cheerleading Trump's move on nuclear deal.

16 - Each phase in the Mideast is sui generis. But this current moment feels a lot like the period before 2006 when there were multiple civil wars raging & cross border conflicts. It also feels a bit like 2013 when there was too much complacency about the rise of ISIS

17 - The main point: whatever your view is on Trump's move on the Iran nuclear deal - I didn't agree with it - there are multiple story lines going on in the Middle East now & very few of them look positive.

18 - Trump's approach to the Mideast might called passive aggressive - aggressive enough to turn up the heat on the region’s conflicts yet passive enough to ensure that the United States does not really invest in addressing them, as @danielbenaim & I wrote
foreignpolicy.com/2018/04/16/tru…

19 - But the reality of today's Middle East is that the countries & key non-state actors of the region will set the trajectory & continue to test the limits of their power.
Things will get a lot worse before they get better.