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Some changes to the Betfair Exchange odds over the weekend mean a new #BrexitDiagram - now V2.1.0
Outcomes (with change compared to V2.0.0):
63% (⬆️ 8%) Brexit with Deal 31 Jan
12% (↔️ no change) Stalemate
33% (⬇️ 8%) 2nd Referendum
Honestly I do not know what to make of this, or if it makes any sense.

This comes *after* the news of the #RemainAlliance and after the Johnson NI gaffe. You'd think those might damage Tory prospects, but the numbers go the other way.
Polls are nevertheless still showing roughly 10% leads for the Tories - see this for example:
I *still* am on the look out for data to feed into this diagram that is better than Betfair Exchange data, but I have not found anything granular enough yet. If you have better ideas do let me know!
High res PNG of this:
techpolitics.eu/downloads/brex…

Scaleable PDF:
techpolitics.eu/downloads/brex…

Blog post with all the info and files:
jonworth.eu/brexitdiagram-…

/ends
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
So after hours and hours of research and experimentation I have now, I think, made sense of the tactical voting sites for #GE2019

My complete review is here:
jonworth.eu/2019-uk-genera…
tl;dr - contrary to all the critique of these sites on Twitter, all the major tactical voting tools make pretty good suggestions in the majority of cases
But you want the detail, right?

I looked at 4 tools:
getvoting.org by @BestForBritain
remainunited.org by @thatginamiller
tacticalvote.co.uk by @lauriesutcliffe and others
tactical.vote by @ZoeJardiniere and others
Read 12 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
And now we are up to 4 #TacticalVoting sites for #GE19

As before my recommendation is still
🚨 TREAT WITH UTMOST CARE 🚨
This thread tests the sites with 2 London marginals - Wimbledon and Kensington

The postcodes I am using for the tests are for stations in each constituency - SW19 7NL for Wimbledon, SW7 2NA for Kensington
Here's more info about each constituency, and links to the results in 2017

Wimbledon (currently Tory Stephen Hammond)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wimbledon…

Kensington (currently Labour @emmadentcoad)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kensingto…
Read 9 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
Sometimes when you are making #BrexitDiagram you cannot see the wood for the trees

@tnewtondunn was the first to notice an error with my majority calculations that no-one else had noticed in V1.0.0 and V1.1.0

So these are now corrected in V2.0.0
The essential error was that I had double subtracted some NI MPs from my totals, making my majority numbers in the middle part of the diagram were wrong. This is all now corrected - thanks Tom! 👍

There are a few other minor text changes too
The recalculation also allows me to narrow scope of the messy outcomes on the diagram - these are now for the Conservatives winning 300 to 319 seats (was 290 to 319)

The base scenario assumes the DUP (with 10 MPs) backs neither Johnson nor an opposition PM, so majority is 316
Read 5 tweets

Related threads

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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
Germany's Die Welt newspaper sums up EU thoughts on #Brexit this morning with the headline: "The only thing that is clear is that Brexit is not happening on 31 October" welt.de/politik/auslan… /1
EU leaders must now agree on whether to grant the UK another Brexit extension and if so: how long for. Don't forget every country has a veto on this. But after speaking extensively to EU diplomats and politicians, the consensus EU-side seems to be to say yes /2
The EU's decision is expected by the end of the week. You can expect a lot of EU grumbling beforehand. France's Europe Minister was unsurprisingly (France has settled into role of "Brexit Bad Cop") one of first to speak on the record last night. She noted that.. /3
Read 12 tweets
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU views PMs letter accompanying his formal #Brexit extension request - saying that he doesn’t actually want an extension- as a gimmick aimed at a domestic audience. As far as EU law is concerned: a formal request from the UK prime minister, is a formal request full stop /1
EU leaders not rushing to make decisions. Instead they watch events in Westminster carefully. If their newly negotiated #Brexit deal is approved by the majority of MPs - as the PM promised them it would be - then possibly no extension will be needed OR /2
Only a short one maybe to allow for necessary legislation to be completed. If this is the case, EU leaders won’t think twice about granting this short extension. They may even approve it by writing rather than on person at an emergency #Brexit summit. Spoiler alert../3
Read 12 tweets
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU dreading this delay almost as much as the government. No intention in Brussels to renegotiate this deal AGAIN /1
Don’t expect any immediate action from EU. They watch carefully what unfolds in UK. They will not rush to answer a request for a new extension if receive it from UK. They want to keep pressure up on MPs /2
EUs legal #Brexit deadline remains 11pm in UK on 31 October. All EU leaders will return to Brussels for emergency summit to debate any new extension but they *could* do so as late as 31 October itself /3
Read 5 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
No 10 source: process to elect new leader would begin after leaving EU [NB that would be May 22 if MV passed]
No 10 source: Timetable to elect new leader in hand of others - PM will stay during process.

This is about new leadership for phase 2.
Seems to me that PM is making it conditional on having to get through phase 1 that her general message it is
price she is prepared to pay and that the message of her team is that “this is national interest above personal interest”
Read 31 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Right. It's Friday. A quick #Brexit sitrep, as I understand it, with chats from both sides.

Tldr: the tiller of SS Britannia seems stuck fast, and the No Deal rapids lie dead ahead....is there anything that will blow the ship to the safety of the shore? /1
There are lots of murmurs round Westminster that MPs now want to back the deal - this kind of stuff noted in @Jack_Blanchard_ playbook. /2
@Jack_Blanchard_ But dig a little deeper, and ask people in Commons/Lords if acceptance of a deal requires Cox/May to win changes to the backstop - a time-limit, an exit mechanism - they say 'oh yes, of course'... /3
Read 21 tweets
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#REMAIN #FBPE #ABTV #WATON #NHSLove🇬🇧🇦🇹
@StuartLothian
10 mths on from a rash, premature, totally unplanned #Article50 trigger, we still await clarity as to what #Brexit might mean? But HMG has now confirmed what we knew 19 mths back - Brexit remains totally unaffordable! We've spent a fortune to establish that simple & obvious fact!
Have known from the off that Brexit must be halted: 1.Our negotiating position was weakened by #A50 trigger, not strengthened. 2.Obvious from day 1 that ANY form of Brexit would be totally unaffordable - as we have 5x more debt since 1997 and run a huge visible trade imbalance.
- 3.UK has a dominant services sector (incl financial services) and stands to lose disproportionately MORE than any other of the EU27, from leaving the SM & CU. 4.Our overall productivity also lags the G20 norm, not a good 'go-it-alone' platform!
Read 13 tweets

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