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New #BrexitDiagram V2.2.0

The first since Farage announced he is standing down Brexit Party candidates in the constituencies the Tories won in 2017, so Betfair odds lean further towards a Conservative majority
Outcomes (with change compared to V2.1.0 from 10 November):
69% (⬆️ 6%) Brexit with Deal 31 Jan
9% (⬇️ 3%) Stalemate
22% (⬇️ 3%) 2nd Referendum
High res PNG of this:
techpolitics.eu/downloads/brex…

Scaleable PDF:
techpolitics.eu/downloads/brex…

Blog post with all the info and files:
jonworth.eu/brexitdiagram-…

/ends
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More from @jonworth see all

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Jon Worth
@jonworth
So Boris Johnson keeps repeating this rubbish that the #Brexit transition period will not be extended beyond the end of 2020

A few little reminders...
2️⃣7️⃣9️⃣

The number of days between the referendum and triggering #Article50 to start the exit process
6️⃣0️⃣6️⃣

The number of days between triggering Article 50 and Theresa May agreeing a Withdrawal Agreement with the EU
Read 11 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
OK, V3 of my tactical voting guide is up, now with the @peoplesvote_uk voting tool fully integrated

#GE2019

jonworth.eu/2019-uk-genera…
Now in 500 of the 632 seats in England, Wales and Scotland the tactical voting recommendation is clear.

In 88 of the 632 recommendations vary, but seats are safe Tory anyway - so no worry.

In 44 of the 632 seats it's interesting...
Of those 44...

1 as a special cases (Chorley)

In 1 (Sheffield Hallam) it’s a free choice between Labour and the Liberal Democrats, without any real danger.

In 3 (Beaconsfield, East Devon, South West Hertfordshire) vote Independent.
Read 8 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
90-odd% of the critique of anything I have written about tactical voting boils down to

"but something happened in 2017!"

Sorry but at the moment we do not know how much of an anomaly 2017 was. It was the first election since 1979 where the % for Lab+Con went *up*
Nigel Farage was not in the running anywhere - he had left UKIP and had not yet started the Brexit Party

The Liberal Democrats and the Tories had different leaders

We know more about Brexit now than we did in 2017
Yes - in some cases (few cases? all cases?) 2017 might prove to NOT be an anomaly. But at the moment the jury is out.

So if you tell me "but 2017!" you are, most probably, wrong. Or at the very least, not yet right.

/ends
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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John O'Connell
@jdpoc
#Tories Election Cock-Up Chaos so far - a continuing series :

01 - #Tories admit and apologise for a doctored, misrepresentative video of Kier Starmer. Tory MPs like @JohnnyMercerUK leave it on their feed and actively continue to spread.
@JohnnyMercerUK #Tories Election Cock-Up Chaos so far - a continuing series :

02 - #Tories Boris #Johnson gets booed out of Addenbrooke Hospital by staff and patients alike, unmentioned by #BBC, who were right there.
@JohnnyMercerUK #Tories Election Cock-Up Chaos so far - a continuing series :

03 - #Tories MP Jacob Rees Mogg blames #Grenfell victims for their own deaths. It takes him four days before he's forced to retract and apologise.
Read 61 tweets
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Pat Condell
@patcondell
A vote for the #Tories in this election is a surrender vote, a vote to stay under #EU control. #Johnson’s insistence on pushing his #FakeBrexit shows he has no intention of delivering independence. He won’t even try. The #BrexitParty is the only vote if we want #Brexit delivered.
#Johnson has broken trust with the people. He could have been a national hero, but has stayed loyal to his own tribe. He’s hoping we’re so worn out by 3 years of lies and obstruction we’ll settle for anything. His #FakeBrexit is an establishment trap to keep us under #EU control.
#BorisJohnson has a large majority in the palm of his hand if he makes a ‘no deal’ pact with #Farage and the #BrexitParty, but he refuses to do it because, like most #Tories, he doesn’t want the #UK to be independent.
Read 9 tweets
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Otto English
@Otto_English
So yes Dr Yasmin Fitzpatrick is standing as the Brexit party candidate in East Surrey. Yasmin is married to John Fitzpatrick one of the leading lights in the Revolutionary Communist party from its inception until its demise.
All of these people have stood or are standing as Brexit party candidates. All are closely associated with the Revolutionary Communist party. Considering just how small it was...

Alka Sehgal Cuthbert
Claire Fox
Kevin Yuill
Stuart Waiton
James Heartfield
Yasmin Fitzpatrick
There are others who you might call "loose associates" who are part of the Spiked network. Fairly extraordinary
Read 6 tweets
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Antonello Guerrera
@antoguerrera
Perché la sconfitta dei laburisti alle #ElezioniEuropee è forse più grave della catastrofe dei conservatori, perché il Brexit Party non è un fuoco di paglia e perché il No Deal è sempre più vicino
Se siete ancora svegli, ecco un mio thread lungo ma spero esaustivo (THREAD IN ITA)
1. La disfatta dei conservatori era risaputa, dopo il disastro del governo May sulla Brexit. Molti elettori sono passati al Brexit Party ma molti di essi sono “recuperabili” se la Brexit viene portata a compimento. Il problema vero ora è il Labour, anche se ha preso più voti.
2. Il Labour è riuscito a perdere roccaforti del nord industriale come Leeds e Wigan, zone del Galles dove dominava da quasi un secolo, è scomparso in Scozia, spodestato dai libdem nella “Mecca” Londra e qui ha capitolato addirittura nella circoscrizione di Corbyn, Islington.
Read 35 tweets
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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
1/ How might the Brexit Party hit the Conservative Party at a general election?

A short thread detailing figures in today's Telegraph bit.ly/2JHFILd

#EP2019 #EUelections2019
#brexit #brexitparty
2/ With Prime Minister May on her way out, the Brexit Party about to surge & the Conservative Party's future unclear we've run some numbers on how the Brexit Party could hit the Conservatives at a general election
3/ This combines constituency level data on 2017 general election with recent Westminster vote intention polls to estimate the flow of voters to the Brexit Party, giving us median and maximum estimates
Read 17 tweets
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Lesley Miller
@LesleyMillercyp
#Brexit 1
Cadbury moved factory 2 Poland 2011 with EU grant.
Ford Transit moved 2Turkey 2013 with EU grant.
Jaguar Land Rover recently agreed 2 build a new plant in Slovakia with EU grant, owned by Tata, same company who trashed our steel industry & emptied workers pension funds.
#Brexit 2
Peugeot closed its Ryton (was Rootes Group) plant and moved production to Slovakia with EU grant.
British Army's new Ajax fighting vehicles to be built in SPAIN using SWEDISH steel at the request of the EU to support jobs in Spain with EU grant, rather than Wales.
#Brexit 3
Dyson gone 2 Malaysia, with EU loan. Crown Closures, Bournemouth (Was METAL BOX), gone 2Poland with EU grant,employed 1,200.
M&S manufacturing gone 2far east with EU loan.
Hornby models gone. In fact all toys & models gone from UK along with patents all with EU grants
Read 28 tweets

Trending hashtags

#Brexit #Russia #A50 #Wales #BennBill #Housing #BrexitBritain #bbcqt #Nationalisation #BREXIT #NHS #LibDems #Reading #Russian #GeneralElection #vote #BorisJohnson #PeoplesVote #fiscalfederalism #BrexitParty #UK #HoL #GE2019 #SorosFunded #Bridgen
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