Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #goldilocks

Most recents (9)

Nobody is bullish which is why I think that we could have a unexpected Rally baring a black swan event
And investors are most bearish on US.
Read 4 tweets
๐Ÿปโ™‰๏ธโ†—๏ธโ†˜๏ธโ†”๏ธโš ๏ธ๐Ÿšฉ๐Ÿ”บ๐Ÿ”ป๐Ÿงฎ ๐Ÿ’ฐ

Macro Review ๐Ÿงต


Core #CPI running at +3.1% SAAR confirmed #Goldilocks for Q422 and catalyzed a ๐Ÿš€ in equities, metals, and hydrocarbons

#Core CPI - 3-month SAAR
Dec - 3.1%
Nov - 4.2%
Oct - 5.7%

Chart: #CoreCPI 5.7% ๐Ÿ”ป

Despite all the recession talk - including my own, the @AtlantaFed #NowCast is projecting Q4 growth of +4.1%, an acceleration.

Growth ๐Ÿ”บ + Inflation ๐Ÿ”ป = #Quad1 #Goldilocks


While #Quad1 #Goldilocks may be good for risk assets, itโ€™s decidedly poor for the $USD, which continued โ†˜๏ธ and took out the 50% retracement level of 102.12

Chart: $USD -1.64% (w) -9.94% 3M = T = Trend
Read 21 tweets
Hello Friday and the week to date!

$GOLD +1.55%
$GBP +1.08%
$USD -1.59%

$TLT +2.35%
$HYG +1.47%
$TNX -3.36%

$IWM +4.65%
$DAX +4.31%
$SSEC +1.26%
$NIKK +0.56%

#Bitcoin +11.26%
$COPPER +7.42%
$WTIC +6.26%
$NATGAS -0.54%
$SILVER +0.08%

Let's dig into the market ๐Ÿงฎ!
Asia closed โ†—๏ธ ex-Japan

$NIKK 26119 -1.25%
$SSEC 3195 +1.0%
$TWII 14824 +0.65%
$HSI 21739 +1.05%
$KOSPI 2386 +0.9%
$IDX 6642 +0.2%

Australia โ†—๏ธ
$ASX 7328 +0.65%

India โ†—๏ธ
$BSE 60276 +0.55%
Europe โ†—๏ธโ™‰๏ธ

$DAX 15075 +0.1%
$FTSE 7840 +0.6%
$CAC 7009 +0.5%
$AEX 748 +0.8%
$IBEX 8910 +0.95%
$MIB 25831 +0.4%
$SMI 11327 +0.35%
$MOEX 2186 unch

$VSTOXX 17.49 ๐Ÿ”ปโฌ…๏ธ

$DAX range = 14237 - 15240 โ™‰๏ธ
Read 11 tweets
A fantastic talk by Prof. @gemmaboleda of @putaupf, on #colexification at @abralin_oficial covering almost anything discussed in her paper jointly by Prof. Thomas Brochhagen also of @putaupf (Link to the paper and the author's webpages can be found in the comments). 1>11 ๐Ÿงต
"Here is summary of what the talk and the corresponding paper are all about:
"When do languages use the same word for different meanings? The #Goldilocks #Principle in the #lexicon 2>11
It is common for languages to express multiple meanings with the same word, a phenomenon known as "#colexification".For instance, the meanings FINGER and TOE #colexify in the word 'dit' in Catalan (the word 'dit' expresses both meanings),while they do not colexify in English.3>11
Read 12 tweets
Hello Friday and the Week to date

$SSEC +1.7%
$SPX +1.5%
$KOPSI +1.3%
$DAX +0.9%

$AUD +2.8%
$GBP +1.02%
$GOLD +0.9%
$USD -1.4%

$LUMBER +24.3%
$COTTON +8.8%
$BRENT +5.05%
$COPPER +4.35%
$BTC +3.5%

$TLT -1.8%

Let's dig into more ๐Ÿงฎ!
Closed for ๐Ÿ”๏ธ day yesterday, ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต played catch โ†—๏ธ

$NIKK 28547 +2.6% ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต
$SSEC 7032 -0.55%
$TWII 15289 +0.6%
$HSI 20163 +0.4%
$KOSPI 2528 +0.15%
$IDX 7130 -0.45%

Australia โ†˜๏ธ
$ASX 7032 -0.55%

India โ†—๏ธ
$BSE 59519 +0.3%
Europe โ™‰๏ธโ†—๏ธ at the open

$DAX 13779 +0.65%
$FTSE 7509 +0.6%
$CAC 6578 +0.5%
$AEX 726 -0.05%
$IBEX 8442 +0.75%
$MIB 22986 +0.55%
$SMI 11165 +0.1%
$MOEX 2140 +0.3% ๐Ÿช†

$VSTOXX 21.15

$DAX range = 13376 - 13858 ๐Ÿป
Read 11 tweets
I have been the most vocal $ARKK bear on twitter since $130 last summer. In recent months I have described the broader market as offering return free risk. I have refrained from predicting a crash - until yesterday in my twitter space. Markets only really crash from
oversold conditions. Equity markets are confronted with the unholy trinity of rising interest rates, a rising oil price and a rising dollar. Selling by retail has been minimal. Last Thursday saw record one day inflows. $ARKK has seen inflows in 10 of the last 13 weeks despite
a 50% YTD decline in share price (h/t @daChartLife ). These are things one does not see at a bottom. The complacency is staggering. Denial is not the name of a river in Egypt. The charts here from the prescient Rob Ginsberg are rather foreboding
Read 8 tweets
With respect to the data, #coreCPI (excluding volatile food and #energy components) came in at 0.6% month-over-month and at a high 6% year-over-year.
Meanwhile, headline #CPI data printed at a strong 0.6% month-over-month and came in at 7.5% year-over-year, the greatest increase over a 12-month period since February 1982.
Additionally, the @federalreserveโ€™s favored measure of #inflation, #corePCE, increased 0.5% in December, bringing the year-over-year figure for the measure to 4.9%, as of that month.
Read 15 tweets
#USA is a free democracy, #India is a "partly free" democracy
#FOE Japan is a free democracy, India is a partly free democracy: Compare the ratio of critical/unfavorable articles, to favorable articles, in the top 3 news sources in Japan & India respectively, to find which press is freer! #SciMe 1st data, 2nd Analysis, 3rd Policy/views!๐Ÿง๐Ÿค”
3/demo #Majoritarianism & freedom: Compare treatment of minorities in USA(non-christian), Japan(Korean etc) & India (Muslims): In particular plot over 70yrs th % of minority pop on same graph & compare decadal changes[summarizes it's discrimination(in cntry) & opportunities(ROW)]
Read 93 tweets
#MDSI2019 Day2 Session 2: "Standardization of file format I/O" by @jppiquem.

Straight into problems -- input files are a tougher cookie to crack than output ๐Ÿช
Actually, Day 2 Session 3 #hasphdcantcount
#Input: Many problems -- many possible solutions! How to find the right one? #goldilocks

#Output: probably easier to handle and we can learn from other fields, like climate research.
Read 21 tweets

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