1/ Welcome to Thursday in the independent republic of Brexitlandia
2/ It has been exciting two days in Brexitlandia where argument raged in the House of Commons over what Brexit means in practice. Which is funny because nobody knows what Brexit means 🙄
3/ The core question is will Brexit make us better off. And the answer to that is NOOOOOOO! Still @theresa_may is of the view we all had our chance and now as a nation we need to suck it up
4/ So even though Jaguar is moving production to Slovakia and Rolls Royce is axing jobs, the sucking up has to continue
5/ I am sure those losing jobs will be comforted to know that Ghost Of Victorian Past @Jacob_Rees_Mogg will be ok as his business is now setting up in Ireland because of Brexit.
6/ It is funny how patriots like @johnredwood and @Jacob_Rees_Mogg say to the public Brexit will be great and then take measures to protect their clients post- Brexit.
I say funny.
In truth it is fraud 🤮🤮🤮
I say funny.
In truth it is fraud 🤮🤮🤮
7/ Personally I would listen to Ivan Rogers because he understands the EU and the consequences of leaving - basically things will be shit
8/ Ivan wisely points out that you should understand the EU position rather than shouting WE ARE GLOBAL BRITAIN and boring the hole off everyone about how @DavidDavisMP used to be in the SAS.
9/You understand how ludicrous the Max Fax proposal is when you understand that the UK is basically asking the EU to let the UK police part of the EU member states’ borders. And the UK then says it won’t do any checks in Northern Ireland or Dover 🤡🤡🤡
10/ So against that backdrop how did the House of Commons get on with the EU withdrawal bill?
11/ Well it is all still a fudge but a fudge that won’t taste nice to hard Brexiters. Which is nice
12/ The most consequential amendment is the one enshrining in law that there can be no hard border in Ireland
13/ This combines a legal position with the political position in the Joint Report in December between the EU and UK
14/ Indeed the Government has confirmed that means the WTO no deal scenario is not an option or policy. No deal was a bad deal and should now be dead
15/ The question now is how do you avoid a hard border. The only solution that exists (eg not a 🦄)short of remaining in the EU is a customs union, Single Market and Vat regime
16/ The House of Commons voted for a customs arrangement which is likely to be a customs union even if they call it a Gammon Unicorn. @S_Hammond ‘s amendment to require a customs union remains on the table for the trade bill. And there is a majority for a customs union
17/ But what of the Single Market and staying in that? The House of Commons did not vote for the EEA amendment but that is not necessarily fatal at this stage
18/ It would have been sensible to vote for it given the lack of time available and it is clear there are more “rebels” in both parties than was previously the case
19/ But I think I can see where the Tory Rebel Alliance is going with its position in not voting for the EEAjust yet...
20/ @Sandbach is giving @DavidDavisMP until end of June to do better than a customs arrangement & EEA.
The only version of that is EU membership.
Davis won’t get that so @Sandbach seems to be saying then the push for customs/single market will come
The only version of that is EU membership.
Davis won’t get that so @Sandbach seems to be saying then the push for customs/single market will come
21/ Remember the EU has already ruled out the Labour position of better than Norway which is what Davis seems to think he can get
22/ And where is the insurance policy for @sandbach? Well there is the @S_Hammond customs union amendment in the trade bill and the Grieve amendment
23/ The Government concedes most of the Grieve amendment and proposed a form of words on part c of his amendment which would put Parliament in control (as it should be)
24/ So if the Government does not keep its word, then the Lords will likely reinsert the Grieve amendment as is and which seems to have a majority in the House of Commons
25/ If Parliament votes down the deal the Government negotiates it could then direct the UK to stay in the EEA and a customs union
26/ Which probably explains why the Government now appears to be backtracking on its promise on the Grieve amendment
27/ Another way of looking at it is that @SteveBakerHW and all the other thieves who wanted to leave to take back control don’t want the Uk to have control
28/ Astonishing really that 27 national Parliaments and the European Parliament get a veto right on the deal but the UK one does not nor does it get to say what happens if there is no deal (which GOV says is not GOV policy but which it cannot control)
29/ So Parliament being able to control what happens seems sensible as that could mean EEA and a CU or even seeking to revoke or extend the article 50 period
30/ and EEA and CU is on the table says the EU
31/ One can only hope @theresa_may and @DavidDavisMP listen to the EU and crucially understand what they are saying rather than assume foreigners are just as lazy as they are
32/ and if that is too much like hard work their colleague @DrPhillipLeeMP has a powerful argument to make
