1/ reflecting on recent comments on the forced sale / liquidation that might be coming for crypto funds, and thinking through the impact on crypto markets. making some assumptions here, but say there are 250 crypto funds that have $2.5B in AUM collectively.
2/ that $2.5B is from $500M - $1B in cash and crypto subscriptions, and the rest is AUM growth from funds who started in late 2017. if we apply power laws, there are only a handful of funds with >$100M in AUM. in fact, most funds have far less in AUM.
3/ there's 1 fund with > $1B in AUM, 3 funds > $250M AUM, maybe 10 funds > $100M AUM, and a long tail of smaller funds with $5 - $50M in AUM. many funds were formed in 2017, but most weren't able to begin taking subscriptions until late fall or early 2018.
4/ this is because there were limited service providers (fund lawyers, fund administrators, crypto friendly banks) who could onboard so many new funds at once, and many spent a long time setting up the necessary infrastructure to operate.
5/ the larger funds have 24 - 36 month lock ups, and one even has a 10 year lock up. many of the assets that funds have exposure to are illiquid investments in projects slated for launch in late 2018 or 2019. they do have bitcoin exposure, but many also have large cash balances.
6/ i think the sell pressure from crypto funds will be extremely minimal. crypto funds are small, relatively speaking, and the crypto "buy side" is dominated by extremely large OTC players that can eat up orders on either side of the book.
7/ crypto funds have largely driven pre-sale valuations and ICO investing, but had minimal impact on BTC and ETH markets. the problem with owning a lot of illiquid investments is how to wind down these positions. this will be the biggest challenge ahead.
8/ the fact that there is a tremendous amount of homophily (like-mindedness) and co-investing between crypto funds and we're in a bear market. when some of these assets become liquid, there will be tremendous sell pressure and little buy side demand.
9/ this chart from @ICO_Analytics highlights this. look at the common investments among some of the larger, better-known funds. in a bull market with a lot of retail investors willing to buy bags from these funds, this wasn't problem. in a bear market, who's the natural buyer? 
