Is the EU bluffing, Simon, @CER_Grant and others today gave a roundup from capitals in the EU that there’s no wish to split the four freedoms as this is seen as a threat to the EU’s single market and existence. What to do (thread)?
The first thing to realise: economics won’t get you anywhere. As bad as Brexit will be for the EU27, for all of them the Single Market is more important. So if a goods-only deal really breaks up the Single Market, their choice would be correct.
So the task would be to argue that such a deal would not break up the Single Market. And here we face a problem: how many people who now say “that’s a ridiculous argument” have argued before that the new relationship could be a model for others?
How many have said that in reality, Europeans don’t want freedom of movement or that public sentiment in the EU27 is on their side? If we have argued this before, we have basically argued that splitting the Single Market would or even should lead to its demise.
