Thread by @Usherwood

So, if I understand this right, the situation is that Gvt will accept ERG amendments on Customs Bill, to avoid having scale of dissent exposed tonight

1/

However, amendments potentially also render Chequers model unviable, esp if a bar to collecting customs duties for EU (essential for reciprocal Facilitated Customs Arrangement suggested by No.10)

2/

So, I assume thinking is that Lords will overturn amendments (as crash most viable path to a deal currently on table), so Gvt can return to final HoC reading with Bill as was

3/

ERG have indicated they'll support final reading, so Gvt counting on heightened peril to keep backbench in line

4/

However, this plan (if it is the plan) relies on Lords undoing Common's amendments

5/

Given that Hoey amendment would prevent any border in Irish Sea, might be taken as way to further soften Brexit outcome, as could require extension of backstop to entire UK

6/

Moreover, Lords might keep amendments, to block Chequers and force a more generally soft plan from Gvt (less likely, but still)

7/

Plan also relies on ERG to keep its word on final reading, which it might decide not to if feels momentum growing against Chequers

8/

Overall take on this: nothing's really embedded enough in policy terms to make this gambit a sure-fire thing

/end

PS one other option is that amended Customs Bill goes through, but then Gvt tries to include amendments to unpick this in another Bill (eg for final deal)

Even more of a punt