Now a bit more explanation: Firstly Trump & Trumpism. If one wants to exit the EU sphere, even partially, it is very important that the WTO is fully functioning, respected and continues to develop. And that America is a reliable ally for the UK. Both are in very serious doubt. /1
The madness of Brexiteers. Can't be captured in 1 tweet and in some ways I don't want to dive into it. But it's endemic. Truly sensible Leave voices are very rare & surrounded by the rest (who still don’t do realism or detail without added wishful thinking). /2
When you realise that (a) even the allegedly sensible wing of Leave is half mad, and (b) you are left standing among very few other knowledgeable and genuinely sensible Leave figures..... you start asking yourself some hard questions. /3
This human factor had been a relatively small one for me. I don't approach things worrying about who else might be on my side. But there are limits and this Brexit process including Brexiteers' continuing descent into madness has eventually revealed those limits. /4
The incompetence of politics: A big one. I knew it was bad before this, but I had underestimated just how bad. The TLDR version is that I expected common sense to prevail via the civil service and a moderate parliament. And I didn't think Corbyn(ism) would last. /5
There is no constitutional safeguard against a SpAd with little knowledge of such a big subject instructing a PM about a way forward and the entire governing party then having to fall into line behind this nonsense and sticking by it for party reasons. /6
Britain's constitution/democracy may boast about being the oldest but this Brexit process might have revealed it is also in the most need of updating. "Not having been over-run by fascism" or external challenge may have paradoxically brought us to this sorry point. /7
Next, the EEA (interim) option. It isn’t going to happen. But if it did, it’d now look like a historic defeat for the whole of British politics and be labelled vassalage. It would cause almost as much fighting as the Govt announcing tomorrow that we'd stay in the EU. /8
Also EEA was only ever a *reasonable* exit option. It was never a *perfect* endpoint. Like everything else (including Remain) it represents a trade-off and thus carries the issues traded off, some of which have been naturally downplayed by EEA optioneers (including me). /9
Those issues include: UK financial services being subject to Brussels (non-global) rulings without a say/vote/veto; the number of 'faxed' EU rules being counted numerically (9%-27%) not qualitatively.... /10
...And saying EU rules are mostly made at global level where UK can influence. That's true to a point but risks (a) being inflated, and (b) missing that global rules can be elaborated/gold-plated by the EU, and (c) the EU as a regulatory superpower drives many global rules. /11
Next, N Ireland. If after 23/6 the Govt constructively proposed a pragmatic EEA-only position, even allegedly temporarily, and engaged with the EU in other constructive ways (e.g. citizens), then NI/borders would be much less of an issue. And yet here we are. /12
But with no continuing SM and with goodwill frankly destroyed, NI has become like an illegitimate and bothersome child that Leavers keep trying to ignore (or just keep repeating "there won't be an IRE/NI border"; and "look at what the head of HMRC says"). /13
The border issue has arisen precisely because most the mainstream Leave narrative has produced no realistic plan that accounts for these issues and what they do propose is....umm "interesting". /14
The EEA Optioneers, myself included, barely thought about NI or Customs during the ref campaign except when couched within a constructive, pragmatic EEA-style relationship. Blindsided by what has since happened, the question of a continued CU has consequently managed to land. /15
EEA Optioneers are left spluttering to demands for a CU that "we don't need it if we develop a constructive EEA position". But as noted, that isn't going to happen courtesy of the Hard Brexit narrative. Instead (ironically) the same narrative has created the demand for a CU. /16
Added to that, there is now a risk that this is the start of the break-up of the union. /17
The UK is thus cornered, courtesy of plan-less Hard Brexit narrators who are now desperately grabbing for No Deal and the WTO Option (which they still don’t understand) to try and save Brexit from their own folly. /18
I cannot support it. And in the circumstances I can no longer support an EEA route out. An AA is possible but it is likely to come with its own set of issues. This is why I can no longer support Leave. /19
The only issue is that I cannot support Remain either, which comes with its own set of trade-offs, and issues & divisions (currently masked). Until we truly understand what the EU really is and our place in the world, we are unlikely to be able to debate/progress reasonably. /end
PS: So there it is. Some of you asked for more and this is my answer. I may not engage with subsequent replies but feel free to fire away. I'm now off to Penn Fest, just when rain is forecast for the first time in weeks. Sigh.
PPS: And I'll be back to reducing (not eliminating) comment on this subject in future.
