Great read by @BethanyAllenEbr &co on @thedailybeast. Reason why Trump tries to be friends with Russia might be not only collusion/kompromat, but an idea of Henry the K that U.S. can work with Russia to box in China. Here is why it won't work 1/ thedailybeast.com/henry-kissinge…
According to @thedailybeast, Kissinger has pitched his "Nixon reversed strategy" to @realDonaldTrump couple of times, and the administration was debating this idea. According to earlier report by @Reuters, Team Trump has discussed this idea with Russia 2/ reuters.com/article/us-usa…
One should notice that in his opening remarks in Helsinki Trump has invited Putin to discuss China and "our mutual friend President Xi," a fact that has worried some ppl in China as @markhleonard noticed recently in the @FT 3/ ft.com/content/f83b20…
However, most of Chinese officials are not too worried: they know that Russia won't be lured into a block to check China's rise for reasons that have to do with deeply broken US-Russia ties, as well as with profound changes in Sino-Russian ties following Ukraine crisis 4/
After the sanctions, the Kremlin rushed to Beijing for support, but before doing so it did a meticulous analysis of possible side effects . As a result, many myths about dangers that China's rise poses to Russia were disproved - those very myths that drive Kissinger's thinking 5/
The Kremlin now knows for sure that China doesn't pose a threat to underpopulated Siberia and the Far East (in this @SCMPNews piece @MariaRepnikova and I explain why) 6/ scmp.com/comment/insigh…
The Kremlin also knows that China's copying of Russian arms is not a big problem anymore - a bigger problem is rapid advance of indigenous military R&D in China, and this is why RU producers have just a 10-15y window of opportunities in this vast market 7/
This helps to explain why after war in Ukraine/Western sanctions Russia made a U-turn in its arms trade with China, and suddenly became comfortable with selling S-400 and Su-35. To dive deeper, read Vasily Kashin&yours truly on @CarnegieRussia (in RU) 8/ carnegie.ru/2017/11/02/ru-…
On Central Asia, China's rise there is driven by structural factors - Beijing is the only potential big buyer of local commodities, and CN economic footprint helps Russian agenda to sustain local regimes, decrease incentives to export CA oil&gas to Europe 9/
At the same time, confrontation with China would entail huge costs as Moscow has learned during Sino-Soviet split. No official border disputes+no massive CN immigration to Siberia + limited nuclear/conventional deterrence is a guarantee that CN is not a threat to RU security 10/
Moreover, as authoritarian regimes Russia and China exchange best practices of limiting dissent at home and share outlook on many aspects of global governance (Internet etc.). More in my year-old @FT piece 11/ ft.com/content/0580dd…
Last but not least, the Kremlin seems to drive just one lesson from recent U-turns in US policies: America can't be trusted. Don't be fooled by Putin's praise for @realDonaldTrump: Trump's erratic behavior just increases RU lack of trust in US 12/ scmp.com/comment/insigh…
Bottom line: Russia is not competing with China for global dominance (US is), risks from bad relations with China are too high, those risks are better addressed by good ties with Beijing, not joining any anti-Chinese block. This truth will stand for post-Putin Russia too. 13/13
