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Medvedev-Li Keqiang summit didn't result in many landmark agreements, but is still very important to understand state of play in Sino-Russian economic ties. Let me dissect it in a loooong theread 👇 1/ 
Meetings of PMs are routine for Ru&Cn (this was 23d edition). What's more important is the 1st meeting of all 5 Vice-Premier commissions following reboot of governments this spring. 6 months were spent evaluating 2014-2018 results and drafting plans for 2018-2022 2/
Top-level government changes were accompanied by important reshuffles at lower levels i.e. Deputy Min of Economy Alexey Gruzdev (cabinet's most senior China hand) transfer to Ministry of Industry, change of Cn deputy foreign minister in charge of Ru for Zhang Hanhui etc. 3/
In the most senior commission, Anton Siluanov, 1st DPM+Minister of finance, has replaced Igor Shuvalov (now CEO of VEB, Russia's policy bank), and Han Zheng 韩正 replaced Zhang Gaoli 张高丽. There were justified concerns that this important format will become dysfunctional 4/
Siluanov, being the most senior official in the cabinet and @MedvedevRussiaE's alter ego, is too busy with other stuff; he hasn't experience with China, and Han Zheng never dealt with Russia; unlike Shuvalov, Siluanov doesn't like management of investment projects 5/
Now it looks like the Siluanov-Han commission has found its mission: building financial mechanisms that will enable more trade&investment between Ru&Cn, and making those immune to US sanctions (Siluanov is anti-sanctions tsar, and Han knows Cn and US financial sectors well) 6/
First steps in this direction announced in Beijing: new agreement to boost trade in RUR/RMB to avoid USD, bilateral clearing systems, new currency swaps by Central Banks, new financial SPVs by policy banks. Some details in Siluanov's statement 7/ government.ru/news/34618/
Diminishing impact of Western sanctions will be a hard nut to crack, but Moscow and Beijing appear dedicated to create a whole system like the one China uses to support North Korea or Iran. China gets Russia-sized playground for testing financial part of Pax Sinica 8/
Further reading in English on impact of sanctions on Ru-Cn economic ties is here 👉carnegie.ru/2016/04/26/did… 9/
The best piece of journalism to date about direct impact of sanctions on the ways Chinese banks treat Russian customers is this article in @kommersant by a China-hand @MKorostikov (in RU) kommersant.ru/doc/3779051 10/
Other ways Ru&Cn governments might take to address the issue: 1) guidance note by CBRC explaining the sanctions to Cn banks; 2) creation of a special Cn bank for Russian deals; 3) sale of mid-sized Ru bank to Cn investors. More details (in RU) 👉 kommersant.ru/doc/3786663 11/
On industrial policy, Vice-Premiers Hu Chunhua 胡春华 and Maxim Akimov are now in charge. Allocation of China portfolio to competent Akimov (watch this guy!) after 5 years of @Rogozin's management style is cheered and applauded in Russia 12/
Major priorities for Akimov-Hu commission that will deepen cooperation and help both countries to weather US sanctions/trade war: civil aircraft cooperation, AI, satellites&navigation systems, Ru agriculture exports to Cn, logistics. Akimov's statement government.ru/news/34617/ 13/
On civil aircraft, CR929, Russia's and China's wide body jet, a future rival to @Boeing & @Airbus, has just demonstrated a life-sized model in Zhuhai airshow. Maiden flights will be in 2023 with possible delays, so won't be quick 14/ reuters.com/article/us-chi…
It looks like the heavy-lift helicopter contract may be also signed soon, but it's less ambitious than expected: it will be a Chinese helicopter with some systems developed by Russia, not a fully joint project 15/ tass.com/defense/1029397
Important agreement on integration of GLONASS & Beidou 北斗, Ru&Cn rivals to GPS: development of joint tech standards and production of civilian equipment that may operate both systems + pilot project by customs monitoring cross-border cargo 16/ news.sina.com.cn/w/2018-11-09/d…
Another area where Russia and China are planning to step up cooperation amid U.S. pressure is AI, according to @MedvedevRussiaE. No details announced yet, so watch that space. One of potential realm for cooperation is the "Russification" of China's surveillance state 17/
Russian security state is watching closely the CCTV-cameras experiment in China, as well as the whole social credit system. For Chinese, some of Russian algorithms&companies might be of interest like Ntech Lab working on face recognition 18/ forbes.com/sites/kenrapoz…
Last but not least comes a set of deals in agriculture that will unlock Chinese dairy and frozen poultry markets to Russian producers - something that Moscow has been trying to get for years 19/ reuters.com/article/russia…
Russia's ambition is to carve out a share in Chinese vast soybeans market and using the trade war to replace the U.S., and in order to signs an ambitious program of cooperation in agriculture between China and Russian Far East 20/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
I'm convinced that Russia's ag export to China will grow dramatically (from very low base, of course), but am deeply skeptical about the soybeans. @CarnegieRu regular contributor Ivan Zuenko breaks down the numbers 👇21/ carnegie.ru/commentary/774…
Takeaway 1. Sino-Russian economic relations will continue to strengthen. US-CN trade war is driving the closer on economy, but is not the defining factor. Trade growth is driven by oil price + growth in volumes of oil + replacement of EU machines by Chinese in RU market 22/
Takeaway 2. Economic cooperation Russia-China is getting more sophisticated than "hydrocarbons for machines" formula, it will include joint development of tech products, but the road long and bumpy + with China in the driving seat. Russia has nowhere else to go sanctions 23/
Takeaway 3. US sanctions are causing lot of trouble for Russian companies in China, but Beijing is ready to address these issues. It will also give China more bargain power, and provide it with a huge testing ground for financial/trade aspects of Pax Sinica 24/
Takeaway 4. The economic side of Sino-Russia relationship will supplement the growing political-military alignment. It will also contribute imbalance of the relationship: Russia needs China more than the other way around, and increasingly so. 25/
