1/ Why is #crypto falling so much in 2018? Because in 2017 the market was up > 30x, but adoption (beyond investing & trading) wasn’t concurrently up 30x.
2/ One can try to explain each fluctuation, but these explanations are frequently stories we tell ourselves, stretching to add reason to traders driving a bear market.
3/ The macro story I tell myself is “financial reality” divorced from utility fundamentals in 2017, and so we have to (expectedly) course correct.
4/ On the bright side, as we eventually consolidate #crypto will be entering a new J-curve era 🙂 medium.com/@cburniske/the…
5/ How far we will fall depends on how much adoption grew in 2017 — 3x? 5x? 10x?
6/ Right now the market’s sitting at ~10x above January 2017 prices (more/less in some cases), but has adoption grown 10x since then?
7/ 2017 is not the first time, nor is it the last time this will happen to #crypto. We have entered the frenzy, where financial reality will often hyperventilate, as the underlying fundamentals march onwards mostly unperturbed.
8/ To that end, what would be the best macro fundamental indicators to track over time as a gauge for aggregate #crypto adoption and market health?
