Sorry for the Saturday thread. But this is important. The idea that the UK will fail to reach a deal with the EU but then suddenly sign lots of new agreements with the EU and other countries is utterly ridiculous. 1/
First, international agreements don't just fall off trees. They have to be drafted, negotiated, consulted, finalised, voted, implemented. Takes time. Not least as if you want an agreement that means something it will need people to do things differently. Otherwise why bother? 2/
Also you need the agreement to be properly legally binding on both sides. A badly drafted agreement is not of much use to anyone. Legal resource needs to rely here on policy and regulatory skills. Which are typically in short supply 3/
In terms of agreements with the EU a flurry of 'emergency' agreements would be negotiated against the backdrop of failure and probable acrimony, not least over Northern Ireland and money. Why would the EU negotiate anything other than essentials if those issues weren't solved? 4/
In any case in the event of no-deal as we are often told the EU would also be impacted. So why wouldn't they first and foremost want to sort out their own internal problems? Which is also not typically quick in the EU? 5/
Oh, and also 2019 is election year in the EU, and the Commission top team will change. It isn't a good year to be expecting dynamism from the EU. 6/
What about the rest of the world? Well we will first and foremost be trying to replicate the 750 or so international agreements to which we are a part as EU members. As a reminder this is currently covered in the withdrawal agreement... 7/
Some won't be too tricky, but others are likely to take some negotiation, especially as the other countries will see this as their opportunity to make changes. Would the UK consult domestically or just try to implement as possible? 8/
The Trade Bill allows the Government to sign up to implement existing agreements without limitation on what changes may be needed. But there would be a real risk on making quick changes that would be bad in the longer run 9/
The biggest reason the quickly signing agreements scenario is fantasy is that it would require the UK government to make many decisions fast. Not a strength at the best of times, but for a PM who has hardly made a decision in 2 years? 10/
And we're talking about big decisions, some with potential life and death consequences. Will we relax checks on inward food and other goods? Will we accept US food standards? Somehow the UK Government is going to become a negotiating machine? 11/
Sitting behind this will be some major decisions about whether we are going to stay close to EU rules or start diverging. This debate is likely to be a focus of UK political attention for many years to come, and will stop quick decisions being made 12/
This is even without what is likely to be a political foment. If the PM doesn't survive we're into a leadership election or new General election. And there will be all manner of short term issues to resolve. New international agreements are unlikely to be a priority 13/
This is not about empty supermarkets, the drugs running out, or hauliers unable to leave the UK. Though these subjects even being considered in the UK should be seen as a shattering indictment of an inept government. This is just the reality of international agreements 14/
There is no sensible Brexit deal with the EU that could be worse for the UK than a March no-deal (ruling our silly stuff like permanent enslavement of the population). There simply isn't the time for the UK to be ready. 15/
So enough British exceptionalism and it will all be fine and worse for the EU in no-deal. Internationally it just looks like we've absolutely lost our senses. Domestically those saying the same includes plenty of leavers as well as remainers 16/
But don't you need a no-deal option in negotiations? No, you need an alternative. And in this case the alternative is as it has always been, giving ourselves more time. Which is also how most international negotiations work 17/
It really is time the Cabinet and key Brexit official negotiators grew up. Almost every Brexit utterance of the last two months has been counter-productive. This isn't mainly about EU intransigence but UK incompetence 18/
Brexit negotiations are not about putting in place the lessons of reading the boys book of World War 2. This is about the future of businesses, citizens in the UK and EU, and much more besides. It is done little good by the silly no-deal talk 19/ ends
