1/ Finally, in clear and understated terms from @samabuelsamid, a connect-the-dots article in the mainstream business media about what's really happening with $TSLA as an automobile business instead of as a stock-pumping enterprise. forbes.com/sites/samabuel…
2/ The writer (and others) immediately recognized $TSLA's claim of 5k Model 3's per week at the end of Q2 as a charade. Subsequent reports from @businessinsider formidable @lopezlinette, along with endless reports of problems from buyers, have confirmed his view.
3/ So, what about $TSLA's promise of GAAP profitability starting in Q3 and continuing ever afterward? That promise was predicated on (1) Model 3 production rate of 5k per week, (2) increasing economies of scale, and (3) givebacks from suppliers.
4/ The production has lagged. The economies of scale are illusory. $TSLA's gross margin definition is highly misleading, ignoring as it does that Tesla must bear the cost that for other automakers are borne by dealerships.
5/ So, the only way for $TSLA to achieve profitability is to take a big bite out of its suppliers. But, there is lots of evidence the suppliers are NOT on board. 
6/ And now we see major Model 3 production cutbacks at Fremont. Workers sent home early. Some have speculated $TSLA is reworking the production line to achieve a higher rate. Sam thinks the more likely explanation is parts shortages.
7/ Now, with Musk's latest late-night tweet, Musk for the first time in memory focuses on long-term value creation instead of short squeezes. What does this mean? It means the Q3 & Q4 guidance of GAAP profits is now off the table.
8/ So we are back to a company that's endlessly losing money & burning cash. $TSLA either finds a way to stanch the bleeding or its SP goes to zero and its "brand equity" is preserved by some other enterprise making cars in some location outside of Fremont, with Musk long gone.
9/ As they say, read the whole thing. Here's the link again. Congratulations, @samabuelsamid, on a thoughtfully constructed, fairly presented, and beautifully written piece. forbes.com/sites/samabuel…
