Over the last 2 weeks virtually the entire EU political class & the US have abandoned 25 yrs of policy in the Balkans vs ethnic partition. Only GER has explicitly rejected the KOS/SRB swap. It's difficult to overstate how destructive these last few days have been to the region.
To turn on a dime the way both EU & US have done on this, arguably, the most fundamental issue in the region's post-YU history is astounding. Now, there is simply no longer a nationalist-chauvinist fantasy too radical, too extremist, too fevered for local elites not to attempt.
Even if nothing comes of this proposed swap, which is (incredibly!) actually not a forgone conclusion, the takeaway for local extremists is simple: wait them out. Wait out the "internationals" bc they don't care & know nothing. Just keep pushing, piling on, turning up the heat.
Whatever they say, whatever they claim is sacred & inviolable is just empty rhetoric. If you make yourself enough a thorn, not only will they *not* confront you, they'll eventually opt to wash their hands of the whole deal, consumed as they are by their own crises.
As I explain in my book, this is precisely the fashion in which Balkan elites have negotiated imperial collapse for the last century & half. But in past eras that was a slow process, taking decades. This has been a long time coming, yes, but it really *erupted* in mere weeks.
I wrote in 2016 that the Euro-Atlantic project in the Balkans was done & that Germany would remain as the lone stalwart. And so it is, it appears. Of course, none of this is a surprise. But to see it crumble so quickly leaves me almost numb. balkaninsight.com/en/article/the…
A colleague said to me the other day they felt utterly defeated but having spent yrs warning of just such scenarios, their conscience was clean. We warned them etc. So we did. But this isn't about predictive powers. It's about preventing violence. And I fear we have failed.
I don't really have grand conclusion. I honestly just feel incredibly sad & humiliated. This was no great contest. It was a struggle btw basic human decency & solidarity, on the one hand, & barbarism, on the other. And it seems the barbarians have won again. /xxx
