1/x I've come to a pessimistic conclusion as to what Mueller's end product will be and how Trump/Russia will play out. I'd love to hear that I've missed something, but here's my current forecast, fwiw (which is little):
1. Trump fils will be charged with conspiracy with Russia for the Trump Tower mtg. and for lying to the FBI. Those charges will come at the end, bec. Mueller knows he'll be fired the same day.
2. Roger Stone will be charged with conspiring with Wikileaks etc. but his actions won't be attributed to the campaign, bec. he had no formal role. Trump will pardon him before he flips.
3. Manafort won't flip. Trump won't submit to an FBI intvw. (so can't be charged with lying to the FBI), and generally will have insulated himself sufficiently that there won't be enough evidence to charge him for directing the conspiracy with Russia during the campaign.
4. Rather, Trump will be "fingered" (not indicted, bec. although Mueller could ask Rosenstein for permission to indict a sitting president, he's essentially a small-c conservative who will go by the book) for obstructing the investigation.
5. Trumpies will argue, not entirely unreasonably, that it's unfair to charge him with obstructing the investigation of a non-crime (since he himself won't be fingered for conspiracy with Russia).
(This argument will intentionally ignore the fact that the investigation he obstructed included targets (Flynn, Manafort, Stone, fils) who DID commit substantive crimes.)
6. Trump and the Trump Org. also will be fingered for campaign finance/reporting crimes surrounding the Playmate/Stormy Daniels payoffs. But nearly half the country will buy his "eh, campaign finance rules are so complex that every candidate accidentally violates them" defense.
7. Trump Org. also will be charged with tax law violations surrounding those payments, but Trump will blame underlings for misreporting to the IRS, then pivot to how we need to simplify tax law so even corporate returns can be submitted on a postcard.
8. NY state prosecutors may charge Trump personally, but arguments about whether a prez can be compelled to respond to state charges while in office will be strung out in the courts through Nov. 2020 (if a Kavanaugh-bolstered SCOTUS doesn't order the charges abated first).
Meanwhile, T's enablers will argue (disingenuously) that only federal crimes can be the basis for impeachment, and some congressional Dems will fall for it, decreasing the state charges' impact.
9. Pence will skate, both bec he did a good job insulating himself and bec the essentially conservative Mueller (see above) will feel that absent overwhelming evidence of complicity, the best thing for the nation is not to disrupt the Executive too completely.
10. Even if Dems retake the House (which I'm pessimistic about, bec: gerrymandering), Republicans still will control the Senate, which means impeachment would merely be a political circus with little chance of succeeding. ...
House Democratic leadership, not unreasonably, may conclude that actually impeaching the president, only to see him acquitted in the Senate, would be worse for the country than keeping the controversy alive through 2020 to boost Dems' chances of retaking the Senate and WH.
NOT impeaching him would be seen as a betrayal by many. The resulting internecine conflict will weaken Dems in 2020. For that reason, some House Rs will stoke the flames, yelling loudly that Trump SHOULD be impeached so he can have a fair hearing (+ acquittal) in the Senate.
11. My pessimistic conclusion: In the end, Mueller will issue a report that implicates Trump less directly than it does everyone around him. He won't be federally indicted. The state prosecutions won't disrupt his presidency. ...
And either he won't be impeached (which, even if tactically wise, will cause civil war among Dems), or he will be impeached only to be acquitted, at which point Republicans will argue that the entire affaire Russe is behind us and proceed apace with destroying the country.
So, yeah, I loves me some Mueller, and I'll continue comforting myself with believing Trump will soon be laid low, but my brain says it ain't likely.
Please tell me I'm wrong -- but if you do, please also explain why. Am I missing a major storyline or piece of evidence?
/rant.
Please tell me I'm wrong -- but if you do, please also explain why. Am I missing a major storyline or piece of evidence?
/rant.
@threadreaderapp Please unroll.
