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Bob From Brockley @bobfrombrockley
, 10 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
Couple of tweets re the Putin/Erdogan “demilitarisation” deal on #Idlib:
1. The Syrian regime army is depleted to the point of collapse. Without Russia/Hezbollah support they couldn’t advance against Turkish-backed and properly armed rebels thedailybeast.com/assads-final-o…
2. A lot of hyperbole around about Idlib being controlled by al-Qaeda. This BBC explainer is quite good on the balance of forces there: bbc.co.uk/news/world-454… But need to add that Turkey & HTS are not friends - Turkey wants this deal for leverage against HTS, who it can’t contol
3. Important to remember that the 3 million civilian population of Idlib is highly motivated against the Assad regime, disloyal to HTS & other armed factions, and won’t blindly comply with Turkey’s plans. twitter.com/i/moments/1040…
4. Past Putin/Erdogan deals haven’t worked out well for rebels & civilians. Idlib was supposed to be a “de-escalation zone”, yet the bombs continued.
newsdeeply.com/syria/articles…
5. For Russia, this is all about geopolitics. They want to be friends with Erdogan, and pivot his government away from NATO/EU. A secure base on the Med and a client state in Damascus is Putin’s goal, not complete regime control of Syria.
independent.co.uk/news/world/mid…
6. Assad can’t be seen to back down over Idlib. His territory is now a patchwork of fractious warlords and continuing the war is its only logic. Although a serious ground assault is beyond him, he won’t stop the bombs and chemical weapons.
Conclusion: Be optimistic there will be no imminent ground assault on Idlib; be less optimistic about end of aerial attacks on civilian targets.

For informed Syria commentary and voices from #Idlib follow these accounts: mobile.twitter.com/bobfrombrockle…
And this:
Sam Hamad in @The_NewArab on Russia's Idlib deal and the weaponisation of Syrian refugees alaraby.co.uk/english/commen…
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More from @bobfrombrockley see all

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It's that time of the year when I make a thread of my top tweets from the last year. So, here we go, my 2018:
JANUARY:

My first thread of the year was this one on the dreadful situation in North West Syria.
FEBRUARY:

My Feb top tweet was also Syria related, responding to a call to save Afrin from Turkey. With Turkey poised to roll on Manbij as US abandons the Kurds, we're seeing similar calls now, from folks who condemned interventions to save other Syrians
Read 21 tweets
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I see JVL deleted this appalling tweet, although no retraction or apology.
As someone who has been physically injured by BNP members and detained by cops for being in the streets opposing the far right, this tweet is both wrong deeply offensive. A thread.
Leaving aside the insensitivity of using a Jewish tragedy as an opportunity to troll mainstream Jews, I want to look at the claim it is #JC4PM supporters who stand up to the far right....
Read 21 tweets
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This @commune_mag long read on three months hanging out with the alt-right in NYC is brilliant. Read it all yourself, but my take-homes follow this tweet.
🏴The walls between the Trump movement, the alt-right & actual fascism are paper thin.
🏴”Left-wing” themes (anti-war politics, the evil of banks) are gateways to the far right scene too. (When Trump pivoted to attacking Assad in April was a devastating moment for these guys.)
🏴”Economic concerns” are not negligible in explaining the appeal of the far right, but cultural ones are more important; active alt-right/fascists are typically white collar.
🏴Fragile masculinity is as central to current forms of far right mobilisation as race thinking.
Read 6 tweets

Related threads

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Thread: @arimelber asked me last night whether #TrumpShutDown was at all related to the pressure brought to bear by the #MuellerProbe. Let’s consider this more closely. It’s a distraction & attempt to show strength at a time that #Trump has been weakened.
First, #MuellerProbe will continue full steam ahead. It is funded and not impacted by #TrumpShutDown. The shutdown isn’t wise or good for anyone. So a shutdown only serves to help Trump if it makes him look strong and like a “winner” to his base. Wrong-headed But Trumpian logic.
Things to remember as we wake up to a partial #GovernmentShutdown: You will still get Medicare, Medicaid, SSI services. Dept of State, DOJ, DOT r among the agencies that will have to shut some activities. Homeland security won’t stop border enforcement, courts will operate.
Read 18 tweets
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In order to understand the #Idlib “de-escalation agreement”, one must understand the nature of relationship between #Putin & #Erdogan. Best to think of both leaders as being engaged right now. Not yet in a full marriage but neither is ready to walk away from each other just yet=>
2-Engagements don’t last forever. They either end in marriage or in walking away for good. This engagement phase will be tested over the coming months as Erdogan is expected to deliver on promises he made to his partner.
3-Naturally, Syrian Leadership is watching this engagement phase very closely. The base case scenario in Damascus appears to expect Erdogan to experience significant challenges in delivering on the promises he made to his partner. The coming few months will prove to be decisive
Read 3 tweets
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#Putin's opening to this press conference suggests the takeover of southern #Syria by Asad/Iran is a model of U.S.-Russia cooperation that should be expanded, and flatters Trump that his summit with Kim [which Putin very much liked the look of] resolved the Korean Peninsula.
On #Ukraine, Putin hints broadly that the U.S. agrees with him that Kyiv's intransigence prevented Minsk's implementation, and then carefully lets it be known Trump brought up the election meddling, an assist to Trump politically, before of course dismissing it.
Trump frames engagement around U.S.-Russian co-operation in WW2, notes that unfortunate Cold War business, then says: "Our relationship has never been worse ... that changed as of about four hours ago." Says he is being politically brave to do what's right. Lambastes media + Dems
Read 17 tweets
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#Russia's really going for it at UNSC today: Amb. Nebenzia going all-out tinfoil hat, contradicting himself in rapid time.

- In the space of seconds, he says (1) the #Douma incident was a false-flag chemical attack by rebels & then says (2) there was no chemical attack at all.
U.S. Amb. to UN @nikkihaley:

- I could hold up pictures of babies lying dead next to their mothers, in their diapers, all lying together, dead, ashen blue, open eyes & lifeless, white foam bubbling from their mouths & noses… the very definition of innocent, hiding in basements.
U.S. Amb. to UN @nikkihaley:

"Who does this? Only a monster does this… the monsters behind this have no conscience… the Russian regime is covered in the blood of innocent children.

#Russia & #Iran are to blame… [but] what’s the point in trying to shame these people?
Read 21 tweets
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.@realDonaldTrump must consider how to respond to the latest chemical weapons attack in #Syria

It must be devastating as both #Assad and #Putin have now acted as if US warnings mean nothing

theatlantic.com/international/…
The meeting in Turkey between #Putin, #Erdogan & #Rouhani was a bad thing

They were planning how to carve up #Syria among other things
I think they read too much into the #Trump statement about leaving Syria

He didn't say "So do whatever you want"
In fact if they wanted to make sure we wouldn't leave soon
Or leave the field to them
A chemical attack was about the best way to do that

It seems way too much like a test of @realDonaldTrump & @AmbJohnBolton
That's unwise
Read 6 tweets
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#Russia is discussing/finalising with #Turkey the cease-fire in #Afrin to allow 4000 #SAA men to take control of the entire city, surrounding villages, establish 52 positions in the enclave and deploy forces on the borders with #Turkey.
Thos who believe the deployment of the Syrian army will only be on the 160 km along the borders with #Turkey are mistaken because that was the initial request of the Afrin administration from day one, rejected by the government of #Damascus.
#Few minutes ago, #Damascus was informed that #Turkey is still rejecting few articles in the deal regarding #Afrin. Negotiators are still positive and hope to undo the problem in the next hours.
Read 11 tweets

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