Profile picture
Bob From Brockley @bobfrombrockley
, 10 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
Couple of tweets re the Putin/Erdogan “demilitarisation” deal on #Idlib:
1. The Syrian regime army is depleted to the point of collapse. Without Russia/Hezbollah support they couldn’t advance against Turkish-backed and properly armed rebels…
2. A lot of hyperbole around about Idlib being controlled by al-Qaeda. This BBC explainer is quite good on the balance of forces there:… But need to add that Turkey & HTS are not friends - Turkey wants this deal for leverage against HTS, who it can’t contol
3. Important to remember that the 3 million civilian population of Idlib is highly motivated against the Assad regime, disloyal to HTS & other armed factions, and won’t blindly comply with Turkey’s plans.…
4. Past Putin/Erdogan deals haven’t worked out well for rebels & civilians. Idlib was supposed to be a “de-escalation zone”, yet the bombs continued.…
5. For Russia, this is all about geopolitics. They want to be friends with Erdogan, and pivot his government away from NATO/EU. A secure base on the Med and a client state in Damascus is Putin’s goal, not complete regime control of Syria.…
6. Assad can’t be seen to back down over Idlib. His territory is now a patchwork of fractious warlords and continuing the war is its only logic. Although a serious ground assault is beyond him, he won’t stop the bombs and chemical weapons.
Conclusion: Be optimistic there will be no imminent ground assault on Idlib; be less optimistic about end of aerial attacks on civilian targets.

For informed Syria commentary and voices from #Idlib follow these accounts:…
Sam Hamad in @The_NewArab on Russia's Idlib deal and the weaponisation of Syrian refugees…
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Bob From Brockley
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member and get exclusive features!

Premium member ($30.00/year)

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!