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David Henig @DavidHenigUK
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Puzzled by all the Brexit options floating around? Here's my summary of where we stand

(thoughts / clarifications on this presentation welcome - aiming for a neutral presentation of all of the options)
Let me add (and there will be a version 2 later today when I gather all the helpful feedback) that there may be a timing issue on negotiations in some or all of these options - but trying to keep straightforward presentation
An updated version of my summary of Brexit proposals being discussed variously in the UK. Thanks for the huge amount of feedback, much of which remains to be incorporated.
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A win for the Conservative anti no-deal party. Now how do the Conservative no-deal party react knowing that in the event of rejecting the PM's deal the numbers may exist to withdraw Article 50?
The instant judgement that this defeat is bad for the PM is I think wrong.

Most or all of the rebels today will vote for her deal, she now has a clear threat to use against ERG rebels - this deal or no Brexit.
fwiw I would say the chances of no-deal Brexit have now crashed and the chances of the PM's deal or similar gone up to perhaps 50%. But the chances of no-Brexit are also strengthening, given the PM's ability to be her own worst enemy
Read 4 tweets
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Am bored of reading the conventional wisdom that the EU could not renegotiate Brexit, and to make this case will borrow the wisdom of one of our most experienced MEPs @RCorbettMEP - this is how it COULD happen (and why it probably won't)
There is no more important Brexit job for MPs in the coming two months than to build consensus - something those more astute than the PM realised some time ago. Future relationship talks with a split Parliament could not succeed.
(The @RCorbettMEP article extracted earlier - labourlist.org/2019/01/richar…)
Read 3 tweets
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The Government may have informally asked the EU about an Article 50 Extension - we presume not for any serious reason (no-deal prep, election, referendum) but in the vague hope this somehow helps the PM's deal pass Parliament
Under three months from leaving the EU by law and we have a Government without a plan.
It is not clear that the UK Government has learned anything about negotiating with the EU over the past two and a half years
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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1) Options available on #Brexit - thread
To try to help out with understanding I'm going to go for the simplest explanation I can of the options in front of the country re A50, Deals available etc based on my understanding

Here goes
2) briefly to begin with, there are 3 #Brexit options & 2 Article 50 options
Brexit options:
- No deal
- May's deal
- Remain

Article 50
- Revoke A50
- Delay A50

3 routes to Remain
- GE with a Labour Remain ticket
- 2nd Ref with a Remain option
- Revoke A50 via vote in HoP
3) Revoke A50
can be revoked by the UK alone, without agreement of the EU & we go back to the *exact* same deal we have now (rebate, no Euro etc)

However it must be a revoke in "good faith", we revoke because we are staying indefinitely, not as a pause whilst we have a rethink
Read 22 tweets
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1/ To understand #Brexit you have to know about the Koch brothers, who are using their $90bn oil and gas & manufacturing fortune to drive US politics in the direction of ultra-free market 'libertarian' economics, & whose influence extends deep into #Brexit politics.
#PeoplesVote
2/ Here is David Koch's program when he stood as a Libertarian Party Vice-Presidential candidate in 1980. Take your time to read it. It is terrifying in its extremism. For example he opposed all income tax. And remember, he and his brother are worth around $90bn.
3/ The Kochs are spending around $400m on the upcoming US elections. The network of think-tanks political organisations they fund and control is enormous. 3 names stand out with regard to #Brexit, the Heritage Foundation, the Cato Institute, and the Atlas (Network) Research Fdn.
Read 9 tweets
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1) Thread - Corbyn, #Brexit & Labour democracy - let's just be honest, it's dead

Saddened but not surprised by this reversal by Labour Leadership.

Labour members overwhelmingly support a People's vote, and they have been comprehensively overridden

#LabourConference2018
2) so, full disclosure, I'm not a Corbyn fan but I was absolutely prepared to "lay down arms" if something approaching a pro people's vote motion came out of last night's horsetrading. It didn't. A fudge came out, and that fudge was hardened into a pro brexit position
3) so what happened, and what does it mean? Quick summary
Well, clearly there is a growing pro remain/people's vote position in Labour - 9 out of 10 members support it & 150 CLPs sent in pro vote motions.

That's a staggering number and shows the concern of members
Read 23 tweets
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Hi Cabinet – so next week you finally get let into #brexit decision-making. So here is your essential pre-read from @instituteforgov.
@instituteforgov First up, our report on frictionless trade – why its impossible to deliver the “exact same benefits” of the Single market and the Customs Union outside them – and why it matters to businesses with cross-border supply chains. instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/f…
@instituteforgov Second our report on some of the choices on offer for Trade after Brexit. instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/t… Note the EU has been very unenthusiastic on the sort of “managed divergence” the PM hinted at in Florence.
Read 13 tweets
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*Brexit at the Border: Voices from local communities in the Central Border Region of Ireland/Northern Ireland*
An initiative by @QUBelfast & @europe_icban to gather data on the immediate & anticipated effects of #Brexit for those living on the #Border
qub.ac.uk/brexit/Brexitf…
1/10
Here are some of the key findings from the report in slide form.
First an overview of the study itself:
Rich qualitative data (online survey & focus groups) gathered across the Central Border Region. Detailed examples & viewpoints heard from people on both sides of #border.
2/10
Respondents to the survey came from across the 8 local authority areas of the Central Border Region, moreorless equally from both sides of the border. 50/50 male/female. 80% 31-65 yrs.
There were far fewer Leave-voting respondents so they got extra attention in our analysis.
3/10
Read 10 tweets
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THREAD (1) When the likes of Hannan feel the need to 'brush off' something so critical to the right-wing/neo-con #Brexit wet dream, we find digging a little deeper to be useful. After all, ground breaking 'shadow trade deals' with right-wing US think tanks is no small fish.
(2) In fact, given the growing negativity surrounding the #Brexit negotiations, compounded by the Govts' own damning economic analysis, one would have thought Hannan and Fox et al, would be shouting from the roof tops about their bespoke 'shadow US-UK trade deal.' Wouldn't you?
(3) The problem for our intrepid trade deal making duo, as almost always, is to be found in the detail; just what are, and who is, behind these neo-con US think tanks? Perhaps Daniel would enlighten us?
Read 21 tweets

Trending hashtags

#Brexit #ProjectFear #CountryOverParty #brexit #politicslive #Europe #Austerity #TheresaMay #FBPE #JC4PM #cryptocurrencies #PeoplesVote #pseudoscience #StopBrexit #Tory #today #LabourConference2018 #rhetoric #WTOBrexit #border #industry #EUCO #bregretters #NHS #Remainernow

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