Could Canada cancel the $15 billion light armoured vehicle deal with Saudi Arabia in response to the Khashoggi murder, as suggested by the heading of this article? Quick thread on why I am skeptical.
theglobeandmail.com/politics/artic…
theglobeandmail.com/politics/artic…
The precise status of the deal isn't clear. We know deliveries started in 2017 at a rate of a few dozen per month and that the number of LAVs to be delivered has decreased from about 900 to 700. That means maybe half have been delivered though we can't say anything with certainty
Could Canada cancel the deal now that deliveries are well under way? It has never been confirmed and like many other aspects of the deal we don't know for sure, but media reports have suggested that if either party cancels, it would face heavy fines.
And though it is unlikely to say it so openly, the government is reluctant to cancel the deal because of the thousands of well-paying jobs it creates in critical regions of Ontario. That is one of the main reasons the govt initially upheld the deal despite all the controversy.
I also work under the assumption that the government has been careful, since the dispute with Saudi Arabia began in August, to avoid pouring oil on the fire. It says it won't apologize (the right approach in my view) but that it is is willing to explore patching things up...
...(also the right decision I think). As such, it is careful not to be too critical (witness the finely balanced and carefully worded statement on Saturday). It would be very easy for Ottawa now to loudly proclaim that it is at the forefront of the struggle for human rights...
in Saudi Arabia; that would allow it to win easy domestic political points (Saudi Arabia does not have a positive reputation at all in Canada), but it would help neither in its efforts to patch things up with Saudi...
... and it would be perceived, also correctly, as a spite to the Trump administration, which this government has been generally careful to avoid. So bottom-line, it's not impossible by any means, but I am skeptical that what remains of the LAV deal will be cancelled.
