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Thomas Juneau @thomasjuneau
, 11 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Given how weird, even by Trumpian standards, today's White House statement on Saudi Arabia is, here is a line by line comment; pardon the long-ish thread:
1. "Iran is responsible for the bloody proxy war in Yemen": no, by no objective measure is that true. The war was local..
..., then Saudi intervened, and subsequently only did Iran increase its low support to the Houthis.
2. "Assad has killed millions of his own citizens": Inacurate. Assad is responsible for far more deaths in Syria than any other actor but hundreds of thousands, not millions.
3. "Saudi Arabia would gladly withdraw from Yemen if the Iranians would agree to do the same": nonsense. Saudi will not withdraw from Yemen, gladly or otherwise. And if it were ready to, this trade would be very strange, since Saudi has a massive investment in Yemen, unlike Iran.
4. Saudi "agreed to spend and invest $450 billion" in the US. Man, Trump drinks that kool-aid. There is no evidence this is true. 100Ks of jobs and "tremendous economic development"? Have I ever got a server in a basement in Chappaqua to sell you.
5. "$110 billion will be spent" by Saudi on buying US weapons. This has long been debunked. Some of these deals are Obama-era; most have not materialized yet. In practice, the real number is far lower.
6. "If we foolishly cancel these contracts, Russia and China would be the enormous beneficiaries": nonsense again. Saudi is so dependent on US (and western) military kit (and training, spare parts, etc) that shifting to Russian/Chinese procurement would take decades...
...and entail massive costs. Trump simply does not understand that this gives the US tremendous leverage, not the other way around.
7. "Saudi Arabia says Khashoggi was an enemy of the state": to be clear, the President of the United States endorses a brutal dictatorship's...
labeling a dissident (and a mild one at that) an "enemy of the state".
8. "King Salman and MbS deny any knowledge... maybe he did, maybe he didn't": bullshit. Dynamics in Saudi Arabia in the past three years very, very strongly point towards MbS's direct responsibility.
9. Saudi Arabia is not an ally; the US does not have an alliance with it. It is a partner.
Conclusion: I could add many other rebuttals. Bottomline, a pile of lies, BS, and nonsense; don't expect this Administration to move to pressure Saudi or to change things.
Link to the statement:
whitehouse.gov/briefings-stat…
Some background on Iran's support for the Houthis (my article dates from 2016; Iran's support has increased since, but the basic logic here still applies):
washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-ca…
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More from @thomasjuneau see all

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Thread on predictions for the Middle East in 2019:
1. Assad will continue to consolidate control over Syria; its normalization will also steadily continue as it reestablishes diplomatic ties with a growing number of countries.
2. This will highlight two dynamics: the... (1/n)
...growing costs for Iran & Russia of their victory in Syria (they are stuck in a long-term quagmire, as Syria will remain fragmented and devastated for a long time) and the dilemma for the west: engage Assad, and you legitimize one of the most brutal mass murderers of... (2/n)
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3. The Islamic Republic will not collaspe
4. The JCPOA will survive but barely as the...(3/n)
Read 13 tweets
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For the past 3 years, I was one of the few voices defending Canada's decision to sell $15 billion (12 US$B) in light armoured vehicles (LAVs) to Saudi Arabia. A series of reckless actions by MbS leads me to change my mind: Canada should suspend the delivery of LAVs. Short thread.
My logic, as per this @globeandmail op-ed, was: Saudi is a necessary but costly partner; it's in Canada's interest to maintain the partnership; the optimal approach is to maximize gains in areas of common interest, minimize costs in areas of disagreement. theglobeandmail.com/opinion/why-ca…
But over the past 3 years, MbS has fundamentally changed the nature of the calculus for western states - Canada, the US, and our European allies. I still assess that Saudi is a necessary partner; it is far better to have it on our side than as a rival.
Read 11 tweets
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Could Canada cancel the $15 billion light armoured vehicle deal with Saudi Arabia in response to the Khashoggi murder, as suggested by the heading of this article? Quick thread on why I am skeptical.

theglobeandmail.com/politics/artic…
The precise status of the deal isn't clear. We know deliveries started in 2017 at a rate of a few dozen per month and that the number of LAVs to be delivered has decreased from about 900 to 700. That means maybe half have been delivered though we can't say anything with certainty
Could Canada cancel the deal now that deliveries are well under way? It has never been confirmed and like many other aspects of the deal we don't know for sure, but media reports have suggested that if either party cancels, it would face heavy fines.
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