For the past 3 years, I was one of the few voices defending Canada's decision to sell $15 billion (12 US$B) in light armoured vehicles (LAVs) to Saudi Arabia. A series of reckless actions by MbS leads me to change my mind: Canada should suspend the delivery of LAVs. Short thread.
My logic, as per this @globeandmail op-ed, was: Saudi is a necessary but costly partner; it's in Canada's interest to maintain the partnership; the optimal approach is to maximize gains in areas of common interest, minimize costs in areas of disagreement. theglobeandmail.com/opinion/why-ca…
But over the past 3 years, MbS has fundamentally changed the nature of the calculus for western states - Canada, the US, and our European allies. I still assess that Saudi is a necessary partner; it is far better to have it on our side than as a rival.
But MbS has exposed and significantly amplified the "costly" part of the "necessary but costly partner" equation. Simply put, the partnership is far more costly now than it was in the past. Canada and its allies need to revisit the assumptions behind the partnership.
The result of this rethinking should not be to jettison Saudi as a partner; that would be highly counter-productive. But western states must increase, significantly, pressure on Saudi, with two goals in mind:
One, to send a powerful message, not just a weak rhetorical one, that the war in Yemen, the embargo of Qatar, and increased repression must change. These reckless actions are costly for the US and its western allies; the more they continue, the more their interests are damaged.
MbS will obviously not change course easily, but the point of diplomacy is to pressure others to act on the basis of your own interests. Without pressure, it won't happen, and the status quo (remember MbS might well rule Saudi for 50 years) is highly suboptimal.
If pressure, after some time, does succeed in pushing MbS to somewhat reverse course (end the embargo on Qatar, end the intervention in Yemen and support a peace process), then, and only then, should Canada consider resuming delivery of LAVs. If not, the sale should be cancelled.
In this scenario - pressure succeeds - western states should actively support those reforms that MbS has launched and which are positive, on the social and economic side. Some of these are real, and should be encouraged.
Two, if this pressure does not succeed in pressuring MbS to change course, at least it will lead to a certain disengagement between western states and Saudi.
If MbS rules for 50 years and does not change course, then it is in western states' interests to remain partners with Saudi, but far less close than they have been for past decades. That would then be the new, optimal equilibrium point. end .
