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Faisal Islam @faisalislam
, 11 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
Russia blocks UK post Brexit WTO tariff carve up plan...

This was exactly one of the pre referendum Cameron Government Brexit warnings
I first wrote about this process when it was going well in July 2017 on a visit to the WTO with Liam Fox news.sky.com/story/scheduli…
They let me into the basement archives where I found the last set of UK trade schedules - the process of negotiating this with EU going well at that time:
Here was Mrs Campbell negotiating tariffs with China in the 1930s
But a year ago onwards many of the UK’s post Brexit trade allies started to object informally to this WTO plan that had been agreed with the EU... eg US, NZ and here Australia (then ambo in a #brexitforensics on sheep farming)
Objections began to get more detailed over summer:
All of them tracked by expert @CoppetainPU here:
Eg NZ in a submission to EU saying the post Brexit wto quota carve up risked a spiralling unilateral trade retaliation that sounds a lot like a trade war
Today’s story is about a formal objection from a non-ally, in Russia, which could spell the end for a lengthy attempt to try to get round the WTO tariff issue through a short-circuited “rectification” process. Process beholden to any and every other member, for whatever reason...
Though this is not about *WTO membership* UK is and always has been a member....
However there are parallel problems in the important Procurement Agreement, with objections from the US itself according to reporting of @bbaschuk
So @LiamFox today made this statement to Commons on now having to enter negotiations under Article 28 of GATT over the WTO post Brexit tariff quota carve up, after following objections, they were not certified. This should mean negotiations with Russia, and perhaps NZ, Oz, US etc
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More from @faisalislam see all

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EU sources say there will be “no summit” and there are “no actual talks”, some discussions on reassurances. Another diplomatic source tells me even those will not come before the vote next week. /1
Still not entirely sure whether the Meaningful Vote debate that resumes tomorrow will be the continuation of the one curtailed last month or a new one. Former more likely. Would have to make special provision for previous speakers to speak again /2
Tory MPs who attended the Downing St drinks were expecting a bit of a rousing unity speech from PM - surprised there wasn’t one at all even “none of you will be back here” type cajoling. On the way out none I spoke to had changed mind.
Read 4 tweets
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22 Tory MPs including PPSs, trade envoys, grandees among 209 MPs signing joint cross party letter from Caroline Spelman/Jack Dromey “must not crash out of EU without a deal. We urge the Government to agree a mechanism that would ensure a ‘No Deal’ Brexit could not take place”
... Tory 22 include Spelman, Boles, Soames, Letwin, Vaizey, Keegan, ex Trade Minister Garnier, Trade Envoy R Graham... more than enough rebels to win vote. As opposing No Deal is manifesto policy of Labour, LDs, Plaid, SNP and Greens it seems highly likely there’s a Commons maj..
At this stage the 209 MPs are
162 Labour,
22 Tory,
18 SNP,
5 Lib Dem
and 4 Plaid.

“we had to send a clear message tomorrow before a fortnight of key debates commencing on Tuesday with the Finance Bill” said one signatory.
Read 7 tweets
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Ramsgate port approach now being dredged (NB by a Dutch dredger) in preparation for the potential taxpayer-funded ferry service to Ostend as a part alternative to anticipated No Deal Brexit blockages on the main Dover-Calais / Channel Tunnel routes
Meanwhile the first stages of “Operation Fennel” which we reported last month are now taking place - @TomBoadle has obtained this DfT letter about live testing Manston Airport Monday as another lorry park, in addition to 13 miles of M20 AND the M26 for No Deal Brexit disruption
Here is Operation Fennel - storing 10,000 cross channel lorries - the 5000 headed for Dover Port at Manston and 2000 For Eurotunnel on the M20 with a further 2000 on the M26 and then potentially stage 5 is for storage outside of Kent, if all that gets full...
Read 4 tweets

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@aev1609 @threadreaderapp @johnehonwheeler @Jim_Cornelius @_HenryBolton Oh & the original Tweet in this thread is accurate. Post #Brexit we can reduce our WTO tariffs if we want.

What we can't do is 'force' our trade partners to reduce their WTO tariffs on our exports to them unless we have an FTA with them.
#BrexitFacts >
@aev1609 @threadreaderapp @johnehonwheeler @Jim_Cornelius @_HenryBolton >Could mean imports into the UK get cheaper, but we lose some exports, because though WTO tariffs have gone down a LOT since we joined the EEC/EU they are still higher than FTA tariffs (majority zero rated).

So we could get cheaper imports, but it probably costs us exports.>
@aev1609 @threadreaderapp @johnehonwheeler @Jim_Cornelius @_HenryBolton >What will likely happen is the UK gov keeps the majority of our WTO tariffs close to EU WTO tariffs & uses those as leverage for new FTAs & rolling over current TAs etc.

Basically if we dropped all our WTO tariffs to zero why the hell would any country want an FTA with us?>
Read 4 tweets
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A THREAD ON #REMAINERNOW

So it’s been one year exactly since I (Andy) started tweeting under @remainernow.

This thread will cover thank yous, some of the things the #Remainernow campaign has done over the last 12 months, what I think must happen next & how you can help.
1/n
So 1 year ago today, having spent the previous 18 months devastated about Brexit & the ramifications it looked like it was going to have for UK, I decided I had to do more & I set up a new twitter account with a simple aim & this was the 1st tweet.



2/n
I'd been following several #regretful leavers (e.g. @HughNorris7 & @timjn1) for a while on my personal twitter (now dormant) & decided that their voices (& many others like them) must be amplified & they must know others feel the same..@remainernow was the result of that.

3/n
Read 53 tweets
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1/ BREXIT MEGATHREAD: #EFTA #Chequers #ChequersPlan #eea #brexit
2/ We urge all of our supporters to RT and share this thread to all of your followers. Feel free to print any sections out and give them to people you think might read them.
3/ The UK must do all it can to avoid a damaging, jobs-destroying hard brexit:
Read 37 tweets
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#Brexit 1
Cadbury moved factory 2 Poland 2011 with EU grant.
Ford Transit moved 2Turkey 2013 with EU grant.
Jaguar Land Rover recently agreed 2 build a new plant in Slovakia with EU grant, owned by Tata, same company who trashed our steel industry & emptied workers pension funds.
#Brexit 2
Peugeot closed its Ryton (was Rootes Group) plant and moved production to Slovakia with EU grant.
British Army's new Ajax fighting vehicles to be built in SPAIN using SWEDISH steel at the request of the EU to support jobs in Spain with EU grant, rather than Wales.
#Brexit 3
Dyson gone 2 Malaysia, with EU loan. Crown Closures, Bournemouth (Was METAL BOX), gone 2Poland with EU grant,employed 1,200.
M&S manufacturing gone 2far east with EU loan.
Hornby models gone. In fact all toys & models gone from UK along with patents all with EU grants
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I'm currently at this #Brexit conference in Copenhagen, where the British ambassador and several #DExEU officials will be on panels with representatives of Danish trade and security. It'll be very interesting to see what's said, especially in light of May's recent Munich speech.
And now that I'm not desperately trying to keep up with livetweeting it, I shall turn my mess of self-retweets into a proper thread. #Brexit #BrexitDK
acknowledges #Brexit will have challenges; emphasises no naïveté regarding "land of milk and honey". Refreshing sense of pragmatism; we'll see how #DExEU and DK reps present it.

#BrexitDK
Read 55 tweets
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#Brexit
1) Thread - All Brexits are bad and what we voted for
It's often said by brexiters that "it's not all about economics"
However, the *actual* Leave campaign was almost wholly about economic arguments

With the leak of this 2-8% report those arguments are now trashed
2) We seem to have forgotten this however economics played a huge part in the Vote Leave campaign, making up over 2/3rds of the primary arguements. The clear message was we would at the least be no worse off and at best much better off. 4 of the 6 below state this clearly
3) & the fact is voters believed we would be no worse off. People prioritized immigration certainly, but against a backdrop of there being no consequences from Brexit - few are prepared to actually pay for ending FoM
Read 36 tweets

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