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Matt Grossmann
@MattGrossmann
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Partisanship is driving religious identity, beliefs, & behavior. Aggregate pattern is Dems leaving religion over time, but socialization pattern is all groups reduce religiosity in young adulthood & only Reps & Black Dems come back with marriage & kids 1/3
amazon.com/Politics-Pews-…
In “From Politics to the Pews,” @mfmargolis shows via experiments & panel data that partisan god gap is often due to party driving religion, rather than the reverse. Also explains religious effects of 2004 & 1960 elections linking politics to religion 2/3
amazon.com/Politics-Pews-…
raises other ?s:
1 Why evangelicals not turn from Trump: maybe they’re only evangelicals because they’re Reps
2 changing party coalitions (Dem Catholic loss, Rep evangelical gain) may not be culture war effect
3 cross-x lit on “Christian nationalism” likely reverse causality
3/3
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Matt Grossmann
@MattGrossmann
white Republicans who are both racially conservative & highly knowledgeable were most likely to believe Obama birther rumors
#SocSciResearch
cambridge.org/core/journals/…
In this study, racially conservative = higher scores on racial resentment index (explained below) & highly knowledgeable means answering more factual questions about American politics (eg what is the name of the Vice President?) correctly; interactive relationships figure below:
- “racially conservative” is authors’ term & in common academic usage, not mine or new
- 1 conclusion of near-30-year academic debate about what racial resentment items (in image above) measure is that views of racial group disadvantage are now integrated in conventional ideology
Read 5 tweets
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Matt Grossmann
@MattGrossmann
politicians rallying behind an in-party President could be surprising if you thought Trump’s uniqueness would change everything, but it is a normal pattern of US politics—especially for Republicans. Meanwhile, the admin has adopted congress’s priorities & passed zero of its own
Trump admin has taken lots of unilateral action, mostly in line with broader Republican agenda. The exception is trade, where his own admin postponed but didn’t stop him. Congress has not tried to reverse it, but neither have Republicans changed their own positions to match Trump
Many political scientists did predict this, but it is not true. Trump has changed the Republican agenda less than Bush had at this point (& it could be just as temporary) & Trump has changed the Democratic Party far more than the Republican Party
Read 3 tweets

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