Thread by @Yascha_Mounk

A few thoughts on why history will remember Angela Merkel rather less kindly than most now believe.

(Thead.)

foreignaffairs.com/articles/europ…

Merkel has done more to shape contemporary Germany than any postwar leader other than Konrad Adenauer, Willy Brandt, and Helmut Kohl. Since she’s a triple outsider in her party—an Ossi from the GDR, a Protestant, and a woman—that alone is a remarkable achievement.

Like many others on the center-left, I feel grudging admiration for her steadfastness. Her commitment to the principles that guided the Federal Republic since World War II—democracy, the rule of law, and an instinctive belief in the European project—is obviously deeply felt.

And yet, she never developed a real vision for the country. Unusually taciturn for a head of government, she rarely jumps into a contentious debate until public opinion has firmly swung in one direction or another—but then followed the crowd wherever it was (apparently) going.

As a result, Merkel has done a poor job dealing with the three biggest crises the country—and the continent—has faced in the past twelve years:

* The euro
* Refugees
* The rise of authoritarian populism

1)

The euro suffers from a fundamental construction flaw: In the long-run, it’s impossible to make a currency union work without a political union. That’s why, after 2008, some wanted to write off Greek debt and move to political union, and others to kick weak countries out.

Merkel opted for a tactical solution, agreeing to a series of bailout packages that were just big enough to stave off disaster.

She saved the euro—but at a very high cost: After ten years of suffering in Southern Europe, the euro’s fundamental flaw remains nearly as dangerous.

2)

Merkel’s actions during the refugee crisis were far more complex than widely assumed.

During the summer of 2015, Merkel was widely panned for not speaking out against a xenophobic attack, and for telling a teenage asylum seeker she couldn’t stay in the country on live TV.

So, lacking a clear legal option for how to keep refugees who had already arrived on European soil out of Germany, Merkel decided to make a virtue out of necessity: convinced that public opinion had swung in favor of refugees, she vowed to keep the country’s doors open.

As soon as Merkel had figured out which way the crowd was headed—and rushed forward shouting, “Follow me!”—the mood shifted. Willkommenskultur (a culture of welcoming refugees) gave way to Fremdenangst (fear of newcomers).

Ever the pragmatist, Merkel corrected course: Though she refused to adopt an upper limit to the number of refugees the country would accept, she struck a series of deals with Greece and Turkey that effectively made it impossible for most migrants to reach German territory.

But publicly, Merkel refused to admit that she had shut the country’s doors or that newcomers did pose real challenges. This made it far easier for the far-right to claim that she was unwilling to deal with real problems, or even that she wanted to “replace” Germany’s population.

In part as a result, the AfD has, under Merkel's watch, become the first far-right movement to establish itself as a firm fixture in the national political system since the end of World War II.

3) Merkel has done virtually nothing to deal with the rise of authoritarian populism around the world, and especially in Central Europe.

Merkel could've built an alliance to stop subsidizing Hungary’s slide towards autocracy with EU funds or even to start proceedings to expel the country if it did not mend its ways.

But she stalled—and her CDU even stayed in the same grouping in the European Parliament as Fidesz.

Now, Hungary has built alliances that will allow it to block any form of accountability.

As a result, the very legitimacy of the EU is on life support. German citizens are willing to share their sovereignty with other free Europeans—but not with dictators in Warsaw or Budapest.

(It’s also worth mentioning that Merkel clearly abhors Trump. Even so, she has done virtually nothing to reorient German foreign policy in a way that would allow the country credibly to stand up for liberal democratic values—for example by fixing the abysmal state of its army.)

Angela Merkel would have made for an excellent leader in ordinary times. The abiding irony of her record is that she happened to take power at the one moment in Germany’s postwar history when the country—and the world—desperately needed its Chancellor to pursue a bold vision.

That’s why the biggest danger facing Germany is not a change of course. Rather, it’s that Merkel’s successor will keep pursuing unimaginative politics-as-usual at a time when the country desperately needs to face up to the serious crises it has ignored for the last twelve years

Please read my full article on Merkel's legacy, and why history will remember her less kindly than most believe, @ForeignAffairs.

foreignaffairs.com/articles/europ…

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