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Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
, 8 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Brexit deal latest: Cabinet sources say May’s pivotal 5 senior ministers - Raab, Hunt, Javid, Gove and Cox - will back it. Leadsom and Grayling also on board. McVey and Mordaunt so far not.
thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/77…
The detail on the Irish backstop:
1. A UK-wide customs union, and no NI-only version (UK win)
2. An independent panel to arbitrate a ‘good faith’ end mechanism (UK win)
3. No backstop end date or time limit (UK loss)
4. Full level playing field rules apply thru out (UK loss)
One gloomy Cabinet source: “The sad reality of where we are now is a bad deal is better than no deal. There is no time left to stop no deal becoming a disaster”.
No10 source says PM will tell Cabinet the negotiation “has been pushed as far as it can go” and the UK “cannot get any better deal than this one”. Adds: “The PM is firmly of the view that the deal will not be improved by dragging it out any longer”.
Most ominous moment in Cabinet today: Penny Mordaunt asked the PM to suspend collective responsibility to give all ministers a free vote on her deal in Commons. PM didn’t respond (ht @MrHarryCole).
If Cabinet agrees the deal, No10 will begin a massive sales job immediately tomorrow night. All 500 pages of the divorce deal will be published in full, and PM will give a live TV press conference.
...but, Cabinet expected to last at least 3 hours tomorrow afternoon, so it’s going to be another long night.
Final thought for tonight: I hear the draft Future Framework will also be published tomorrow. It’s only 15 pages long and means all things to all men, Chequers as well as Canada. It will either fool everyone or no one.
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More from @tnewtondunn see all

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Tory MP says Theresa May has just told them she will resign as PM before the next general election. Some Ministers reported to be in tears inside the committee room.
An ERG Tory asked PM, “What is your longterm intention after March?” This she ducked.
Lee Rowley: “Stamina is not a policy Prime Minister”. Ouch.
Read 3 tweets
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Brexit crisis latest: 1. Mood hardening among Tory loyalists for May to resign next week if/when she loses meaningful vote. One minister: “There is a feeling after Tuesday’s disaster that she has well and truly run out of road".
thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/79…
2. Cabinet ministers losing patience with PM’s ongoing refusal to share any Plan B with them. One of them tells me: "It feels just like the fiasco with the election manifesto last year”.
3.Rising Tory star and former Remainer @JohnnyMercerUK delivers fresh blow to PM by coming out against her Brexit deal, branding it “a total failure of the political class”.
Read 3 tweets
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Is 95% of the Withdrawal Agreement really done, as the PM tells the Commons today? Here’s what is still unsettled in a short Brexit thread (spoiler - quite a lot) 1/8
A. HMG still needs to persuade the EU to accept its UK-wide Irish backstop, and dump their own NI-only version. This also means HMG defining the full UK backstop 2/8
Only half of it - the Temporary Customs Arrangement - is out there so far. What happens to the EU's rules and regulations during the backstop period (ie the very tricky bit for the DUP) is still undeclared 3/8
Read 8 tweets

Related threads

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#Brexit #thread
1/ If you don’t follow Brexit every day, here’s some advice. Let go of any illusions that this drama is about trade protocols, residency rights or the status of the Irish border. Brexit is the story of a proud former imperial power undergoing a mid-life crisis
2/ The rest of the world is left listening to Britain’s therapy session as they drone on about their ex-spouse, unable to see, admit or address their own flaws.
3/ The promise of Brexit was that it would make Britain feel big again. “Britain is special,” the Brexiteers assured British voters, who cast their ballots accordingly. But Brexit has proven that for the first time in modern history, Britain is small.
Read 22 tweets
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So @DominicRaab and Brexiteers think a defeat for @theresa_may
on Dec 11 will allow the UK to renegotiate the Irish backstop, specifically the right to leave unilaterally.

Here's why, after chats with both sides, that ain't happening IMO. 1/thread

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@DominicRaab @theresa_may First Raab thinks a PM that shows some "will and resolve" can get the EU to change its mind.

But his own experience must tell him different. Remember his own failed tilt at @simoncoveney demanding three-month exit clause? Fail. /2

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@DominicRaab @theresa_may @simoncoveney But even allowing for disingenuousness, there are 3 reasons why the EU is not bluffing when it says it won't renegotiate the backstop to give the UK a unilateral walkout clause.

1. They actually want to avoid a hard border
2. Political solidarity
3. They don't buy UK bluff /3
Read 20 tweets
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1) who are the stupid #Brexit people John?
A regular device from brexiters is to say that #PeoplesVote supporters think Leave voters were stupid

It's true that there were very many incredibly, boneshakingly dense Brexiters, but they were leading, not following

Some examples
2) Melanie Philips is a regular pro #Brexit columnist, arguing for a tough line on the EU.

This is her finding out *only last night* that we represent 10% of the EUs total exports compared to 45% of ours going to the EU

Her confused look is remarkable

3) David Davis, Brexit secretary and former EU minister, believed *even after the referendum* that we could strike illegal individual deals with Germany, France etc, something utterly forbidden under EU law

This was the basis of his Leave position
Read 17 tweets
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1) Again and again I’m struck by the chasm in thinking between leading MP’s on #Brexit and the viewpoint of EU leaders - and remember, if you want a deal, it takes two to tango
2) There is ZERO appetite or intention in EU circles to renegotiate this withdrawal deal
3) The EU would love the U.K. to remain a member of the club but if we’re leaving - then this is the divorce deal
Read 14 tweets
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Theresa May has destroyed any chance of a decent Brexit.

How badly I feel for the people of the UK today! They got sold down a river.

Theresa should never have been the one to lead the negotiations. She never even believed in Brexit.

The UK won’t be great again.
Given the #Brexit deal on the table, the UK would be far better off leaving without a deal.

It astounds me that with all the problems they have, they keep electing the same government to lead them.

You’ve got great people like @Nigel_Farage who could’ve done a REAL job!
I don’t understand how a Prime Minister can lose 16 Cabinet Members within the space of a year and continue to govern.

These are people quitting on her. Not her firing them!

This woman needs to step aside. They’ve made a mockery of #Brexit and taken it up the rear from the EU!
Read 7 tweets
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#brexit 33
Germany earned €2.9 billion from Greece’s debt crisis, their supposed equal members

@EURACTIV euractiv.com/section/econom…
#Brexit 34
Multinationals avoid the total cost2UK of Freedom of Movement & Freedom of Establishment is about £40 Bn/YEAR. The effect on UK public finances is 2drain the resources available 4 OUR pensions & benefits in the future. Get ready 2work until you drop!
globalbritain.co.uk/wp-content/upl…£30bn-cost-of-EU-migration-FINAL.pdf
Read 13 tweets

Trending hashtags

#Brexit #Lab18 #BrexitDeal #Remainers #EUWithdrawalBill #chequers #PeoplesVote #ProjectFear #RemainerNow #bbctw #StopBrexit #EUCO #ABTV #StopBrexitSaveBritain #brexit #FBPE #EUWithrawalBill #Ireland #Remain #EU #bbcqt #Brexiters #RevokeA50

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