Is 95% of the Withdrawal Agreement really done, as the PM tells the Commons today? Here’s what is still unsettled in a short Brexit thread (spoiler - quite a lot) 1/8
A. HMG still needs to persuade the EU to accept its UK-wide Irish backstop, and dump their own NI-only version. This also means HMG defining the full UK backstop 2/8
Only half of it - the Temporary Customs Arrangement - is out there so far. What happens to the EU's rules and regulations during the backstop period (ie the very tricky bit for the DUP) is still undeclared 3/8
B. Devising a mechanism for the UK-wide Irish backstop to come to an end. The PM must be able to claim it really is temporary and the UK can escape from it 4/8
C. Agreeing how any transition extension would work, including costs and what happens to the Common Fisheries Policy during it. Scots Tories have a red line need for it to end by April 2021 in time for Holyrood election campaign 5/8
The domestic complication: all of A, B, C need full agreement from the whole of the Cabinet to stop any further resignations. PM may well lose a few along the way 6/8
And of course, once all that’s done and the Withdrawal Agreement is sorted, the detail of the Future Framework must be filled in. Only the headline areas have been agreed for it so far 7/8
According to Dominic Raab, ALL of that must be done “towards the end of November”. That’s 5 short weeks, with a Budget in the middle of it all. The odds on that? 27-1 imho 8/8
