Thread by @yestiseye

@BNW_Ben @renew_economy @tbinoz @mtrw85 /beast-mode on
So a quick eyeballing of the last week in particular shows this to have been true *multiple* times. A poor week for renewables it's true; but that's the point: the system has to handle exactly such a situation.

Let's dive into some actual data shall we? 1/x

@BNW_Ben @renew_economy @tbinoz @mtrw85 First a basic boxplot of the spread of output (note CCGT & steam gas plants combined have a steady relatively high output). A strong dependence on imports, and that burst of exports when wind over-produced.
All the shortcomings of variable intermittency on display here. 2/x

@BNW_Ben @renew_economy @tbinoz @mtrw85 A simple re-ordering of the energy types is instructive. CCGT providing the flex‑base, gas(steam) plant(s) doing the load-following & OCGTs + imports handling the rest. All of them doing a solid job of dancing around wind & solar output.
Note the battery around x-axis too.😉 3/x

@BNW_Ben @renew_economy @tbinoz @mtrw85 Then we have the load duration curve of this data, with the make-up of the generation under the (adjusted) residual demand curve included. ('adjusted' to account for the system inertia requirements i.e. wind gets exported)
Storage is in there too, … 4/x

@BNW_Ben @renew_economy @tbinoz @mtrw85 …but could it scale up such that it can handle the bulk of this residual demand? Will we see such a thing in a decade's time? Or in 3? 🤨 Let's just say I'm a skeptic.
More important is, what excuse do the renewables-boosters plan to pitch when that inevitability eventuates? 5/x

@BNW_Ben @renew_economy @tbinoz @mtrw85 Let's do this again, one more time, but with the entire month of October.
Over the long run, this is more typical. Some good periods for renewables, which just happen to correspond with imported 'overspill'. And I've deliberately included the *baseload* level in #3. 6/x

@BNW_Ben @renew_economy @tbinoz @mtrw85 It's important to understand what it means at a system level when that level drops so low (even negative). It will be critical in Qld, NSW & Vic. States that SA is dependant on during weeks just like this one.
A low baseload level means less coal, but more gas. Expensive. 7/x

@BNW_Ben @renew_economy @tbinoz @mtrw85 And our Labor government in waiting isn't dumb. (Even more) Expensive electricity is a quick way back into opposition. Someone, somewhere is talking to them about capacity payments …for coal plants. This 'plan' is madness.
/beast-mode off 8/8

@BNW_Ben @renew_economy @tbinoz @mtrw85 *imported 'overspill' should be exported 'overspilll'