Thread by @Usherwood

Some thoughts about reopening the WA/PD texts:

1/

There are 2 windows when this is a live issue: right now and again after May looses vote in HoC (probably)

2/

Right now, pressure to amend texts to accommodate UK pay-offs and ES concerns on Gibraltar.

Neither look at all likely

3/

Reason is v.largely one of momentum. No appetite on either side table for changes, so each is using the other to say "this is it"

4/

ES likely to have to make do with side-text ( and promises for future relationship mandate for post-withdrawal)

UK going to have to ride it out now and wait for Parliament debtes/votes

5/

If/when May looses that, Q of amendment will come up again, to buy off opposition

6/

But two big issues

7/

First is that EU really doesn't want to get into renegotiation, hence long-standing line that this is it and you take it or leave it.

Again ES will loom: if UK gets something, we want something back, etc

8/

Second, not clear what could be renegotiated to win over enough MPs to make a difference

9/

Backstop is obvious target, but EU too buy-in to make that realistic option

Finances have been settled too long

Citizens don't matter enough (frankly)

And rest is too marginal

10/

You could change PD, but it'll still be non-binding

11/

So overall, I think the text signed tomorrow is going to be the text that lives or dies

/end