We’re heading for Parliament vs Government (first time since 1940?). My thoughts in a thread. 1/14
Most Tory MPs will back May’s deal. Because they understand EU enough to see there isn’t a better Brexit & they believe their voters don’t want them to oppose Brexit. 2/
But Parliament will vote May’s deal down. Labour opposes it. Anti-Brexit Tories will join them, plus some anti-deal hard Brexiters who don’t understand EU or UK’s position in the world. 3/
May won’t resign as Tory leader so long as most Tory MPs don’t oppose her. She believes in herself. (And for good reason - she’s defeated every one of her enemies.) 4/
So a Parliamentary defeat on May’s deal won’t cause her resignation as Tory leader.
And she won’t go back to EU to renegotiate either. Because no WA can satisfy the hard liners, the anti-Brexiters - or Labour. 5/
And she won’t go back to EU to renegotiate either. Because no WA can satisfy the hard liners, the anti-Brexiters - or Labour. 5/
May will consider 2 options:
- call a General Election
- call Parliament’s bluff - sit tight and dare Parliament to *legally force her* to reopen negotiations (maybe incl asking for A50 extension) or withdraw A50. 6/
- call a General Election
- call Parliament’s bluff - sit tight and dare Parliament to *legally force her* to reopen negotiations (maybe incl asking for A50 extension) or withdraw A50. 6/
If May thinks *she* *can* win a GE (incl holding on to her leadership before it happens) she’ll call it. Remember: she gambles. 7/
If May thinks calling a GE would see her lose PM (because Tories would replace her or she’d likely lose), she will call Parliament’s bluff. 8/
Or rather, May would call Labour’s bluff. Because the Tory anti-Brexiters would depend for success on Labour’s leadership. 6 weeks or so of intense Parliamentary conflict & massive pressure on an inexperienced Labour front-bench in a crisis not seen for generations. 9/
Labour’s choices: Force a binding Parliamentary vote on 1 or more:
A. Instruct May what changes in WA to ask EU for.
B. Instruct May to ask EU for A50 extension.
C. Hold a second referendum.
Or
D. Have no binding votes, just protests. 10/
A. Instruct May what changes in WA to ask EU for.
B. Instruct May to ask EU for A50 extension.
C. Hold a second referendum.
Or
D. Have no binding votes, just protests. 10/
All 4 Labour Options are hard:
Labour has no position on what to ask EU for in a WA, let alone one most MPs would back.
Without that, UK has no reason to ask for extension of A50 - and won’t get one anyway.
Passing an emergency Act to hold a second referendum is BIG. 11/
Labour has no position on what to ask EU for in a WA, let alone one most MPs would back.
Without that, UK has no reason to ask for extension of A50 - and won’t get one anyway.
Passing an emergency Act to hold a second referendum is BIG. 11/
Option D - Do Nothing Binding - may be most attractive to Labour leadership. Hold protest votes, but let Brexit happen & blame Tory Gov. 12/
Task now of Labour opponents of Brexit is to persuade Labour MPs & leadership to lead Parliament in using its powers to defeat Government’s Brexit. 13/
If May won’t call a GE, then Parliament must force her to stop Brexit. And if the only way to persuade Parliament is a #PeoplesVote , then Labour must lead that call.
And quickly. Nothing would be worse than a Ran-Out-Of-Time-Brexit.
Which is May’s *Real* Plan. 14/14
And quickly. Nothing would be worse than a Ran-Out-Of-Time-Brexit.
Which is May’s *Real* Plan. 14/14
