This isn’t going to be a popular take, but people are overstating today’s significance politically. For Trump’s base, it isn’t a game changer that he lies & was dealing with Russia. And it’s about the base.
There’s a lot more coming, but I don’t think today was the turning point.
There’s a lot more coming, but I don’t think today was the turning point.
2/ My working assumption: It's not just about the base. At a certain point, faced with major concrete felonies, GOP leaders won't be able to keep up the charade, even if Trump still has 35-40% approval. They know that 60% strong disapproval is fatal.
But what is that point?
But what is that point?
3/ And even facing 60% strong disapproval of Trump, GOP leaders still fear getting primaried and punished by the #MAGA nuts who strongly approve. After the 2018 midterms, rural Reps and Senators survived, and they will keep playing the same strategy... Until something big drops.
4/ To be clear, we have had ample evidence of serious felonies for a long time. Campaign finance felonies.
A ton of obstruction, 18 USC 1512(c)(2).
Conspiracy to defraud, 18 USC 371.
Pardon dangling as bribery conspiracy.
Yet he still floats along around 40% and GOP support...
A ton of obstruction, 18 USC 1512(c)(2).
Conspiracy to defraud, 18 USC 371.
Pardon dangling as bribery conspiracy.
Yet he still floats along around 40% and GOP support...
5/ And hey, we all know Trump knew about Jr's Tower meeting with Russian agents.
And that still didn't move the needle, though the timeline is obvious.
I explain how that knowledge leads to a chain of events for conspiracy to defraud, 18 USC 371.
slate.com/news-and-polit…
And that still didn't move the needle, though the timeline is obvious.
I explain how that knowledge leads to a chain of events for conspiracy to defraud, 18 USC 371.
slate.com/news-and-polit…
6/ I don't think there's a definitive turning point until we see more concrete crimes, more serious than lying, more concrete than the conspiracy charge I laid out above.
We didn't get that yesterday.
I think Mueller may have that in hand, but needs to complete the investigation.
We didn't get that yesterday.
I think Mueller may have that in hand, but needs to complete the investigation.
7/ Can we identify one statutory felony that concretely comes out of yesterday’s news, other than speculation about perjury false statement?
(FCPA isn't going to cut it).
Yesterday was a step forward, but I suggest legal analysis might need to distinguish more concrete crimes.
(FCPA isn't going to cut it).
Yesterday was a step forward, but I suggest legal analysis might need to distinguish more concrete crimes.
PS: I reserve the right to change my mind next week.
Next week could be very interesting:
Next week could be very interesting:
