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Simon Wardley #EEA @swardley
, 23 tweets, 5 min read Read on Twitter
Billionaire's promise to leave the UK if Corbyn is PM shows he is oblivious to the interests of the working class - independent.co.uk/voices/lord-al… ... is this really news?
News, would be ...
a) Richest UK 50 donate £100bn to UK fund to deal with inequality (ps. they'd still have a lifetime of cash each)
b) £200bn raised with 4% one off wealth tax on properties over £1M
... plenty of money exists to deal with issues, if people are willing.
... this is the one thing that is missing with the whole #peoplesvote discussion. No-one is truly dealing with the core issues behind the vote. It's almost as if some want to go back to how it was ... which means ignoring those left behind, the poorest.
If you want to bring the nation together, then bring everyone. Remain if you must but fight to create that wealth fund to tackle inequality ... £100bn from UK richest, £200bn from wealthy house owners, some other adhoc wealth taxes on PFIs, the city etc ... it wouldn't take much.
We could give it a catchy name, a "National Transformation" fund. But then, that's what Corbyn was planning just at a much milder level of £250bn over 10 years. Personally it needs to be bolder but even at this mild level, I'm not surprised that some go "anyone but Corbyn" ...
... problem I have with the #PeoplesVote is I was against the first referendum - - and against the idea of Parliament shirking its duty again but I'm also against returning to the past and ignoring those left behind in this EC's neoliberal journey ...
... so when some PLP members say we should have a #PeoplesVote then I cringe. First, we need a general election and a new Government. After which we need that fund created and if there is the potential for reform (as per DiEM25) then maybe, we can revoke. Election first.
Because if we truly want to unshackle the potential of the UK, to enable the best and brightest to shine, to become competitive on a global scale then we cannot continue with this neoliberal fantasy and the stagnation, rent extraction and inequality it fosters.
X : Do you think we should extend article 50?
Me : Absolutely not. That would require unanimous agreement from EU27 and the price is likely to be high i.e. agreement to the "financial settlement" plus some additional fees for an extension. It is not worth it.
X : But we need that extension to hold a #PeoplesVote
Me : I don't agree with a 2nd referendum. I didn't agree with having a first. Parliament is sovereign, it doesn't need a referendum to revoke article 50. What is needed is a general election.
X : Do you think a party should stand on a manifesto of revoking article 50?
Me : If your goal is irrelevance then by all means. Despite the noise, brexit is a secondary issue to the challenges the UK faces.
X: Is there time for an election?
Me : Last snap election was called in under two months (mid April to beginning of 8th June). If a snap election was called after the meaningful vote, then the only option on the table would probably be Parliament revoking article 50.
X : Couldn't UK just leave and trade on WTO?
Me : It could have (past tense) whether it still could depends upon preparations made. That bit is far from clear.
X : It might not be possible to exit under WTO?
Me : No. It might be politically difficult i.e. scenario of meaningful vote, snap election and discovery of little preparation would be tricky. Certainly not an ideal place to be.
X : So, you wouldn't leave?
Me : I'd leave.
... I happened to agree with Detter de Frankopan and thought we should exit on a50(s1) when we were ready i.e. not triggered s2 process. Of course, I'm happy to compromise with EEA docked to EFTA. The only two things I don't like are the current WA and returning to status quo.
X : What's tricky with WTO?
Me : Again it comes down to preparation. One play is to use zero tariffs and most favoured nation but it assumes we understand our value chains (preferably mapped them) enough to know where to place the zero tariffs ...
... i.e. the often trite example of bananas is given. Well, that's easy because we don't produce them. However, other value chains are much more complex. You'd need to know where to target. That requires lots of preparation e.g. knowing top 100 critical value chains in UK.
... there are all sorts of games you could play e.g. in some places refocusing domestically produced goods to the domestic market whilst cutting raw material costs. However, you really need to have done that preparation.
Biggest problem with this is the work required. Alas, most industry hasn't got a clue on its value chain other than one up and one down (who we buy from, who we sell to) even across Europe, let alone worldwide. Take Parma Ham, most pigs used to make it are from farms in Holland.
If you start looking into pharma or manufacturing then the value chains rapidly become a mess which also hides huge amounts of inefficiency and waste. The only people that tend to have a clue are regulators.
X : In other words, it would take years to prepare properly for trade in a pure WTO environment?
Me : Well, it certainly requires preparation and not something you turn up to and suddenly declare "we're going to climb Mount Everest ... tomorrow".
... this is why I say the WTO option depends upon preparations made. It's not clear to me what has been prepared. Could it have been prepared, of course. Has it? No idea.
X : Parma ham doesn't use Dutch pigs, it comes from specific genetic stock born and reared in Northern Italy.
Me : Hmmm. I was under the impression that the use of Danish Duroc was quite widespread. Well, I'm happy to be corrected.
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