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Torsten Bell @TorstenBell
, 7 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
For most of us the labour market is the economy. Here's some reflections on what lessons 2018 has to offer us for the year ahead - in time for your New Year's resolutions resolutionfoundation.org/media/blog/top…
First, never underestimate the progressive benefits of record employment. Employment gains in 2018 have gone overwhelmingly to groups that are generally disadvantaged in the labour market - those with disabilities, ethnic minorities and lower qualified people.
Second, another reason to value the post-crisis jobs surge - it's probably coming to a close. 2018 is very likely to be the slowest year for jobs growth since the employment recovery began - under the headlines the employment rate has plateaued since last February
Third, don't ignore emerging problems hidden by record average employment rates - like big rises in young men with a mental illness or depression that has seen the numbers not in education or employment, or looking for a job surge from 150k in 2013 to 200k today
Fourth, we project pay growth is likely to strengthen further in early 2019 data, breaking through 1% for first time since 2016. But don't get carried away - a slowdown in (already weak) productivity growth & investment in late 2018 shows political chaos is having real effects
Fifth, pay inequality started to increase again in 2018 after some very progressive years (thanks to the National Living Wage). Policy makers should be looking at the number of hours worked by lower earners and whether faster growth at the top continues into 2019
So 2018 has had lots to boast about on the labour market front, but it also has lessons to teach policy makers planning their New Year's resolutions, from the effect of mental illness to a rise in pay inequality. They would be well worth learning. resolutionfoundation.org/media/blog/top…
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