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Noah Smith
@Noahpinion
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
A rough calculation says that if Central American immigration pressure lasts for another 20 years, then stringent, draconian Trump-style policies might be able to prevent at most around 750,000 Central Americans from coming to America, in total.
We have to ask ourselves: Is it worth militarizing the border and turning the entire border zone into a "papers, please" police state in order to keep out 750,000 Central Americans?

That's an absolutely ridiculous tradeoff.
And keep in mind that so many Mexicans are going back to Mexico that even with the Central American influx, the overall number of undocumented immigrants is dropping year after year.
Given these facts, it seems to me that the only reason to Build The Wall is as a big "F.U." to Hispanic Americans. A way to tell them they don't belong in America.

But I'm sure some Trump supporter will now pop up to scream "How DAAARE you call me RAAACIST?!!"...
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Noah Smith
@Noahpinion
Today's @bopinion post is an important one. It's about how China's growth model changed in response to the Great Recession.

But more broadly, it's about whether China's authoritarianism will hurt its long-term growth.
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
We start with the observation that China's economy is slowing down (h/t to @BaldingsWorld):
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
BUT, this may be only the most recent effect of a longer-term trend: slowing Chinese productivity growth.

In 2008, Chinese productivity growth collapsed and stayed low. Here's the most optimistic estimate I could find:
Read 18 tweets
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Noah Smith
@Noahpinion
Most super-rich people make their money by owning their own businesses. They get capital income rather than ordinary income. But they also tend to work very hard, meaning they are not the "idle rich" collecting capital income passively.

nber.org/papers/w25442
Also, the authors find that the rich people's work effort appears to be necessary for their capital income; after they retire, the profits of their businesses fall by an average of 2/3.

nber.org/papers/w25442
In other words, the notion that capital income = passive income of the idle rich isn't generally true in today's economy.

Yes, there are some super-rich people who inherit businesses or land and sit back and collect checks. But they aren't the norm nowadays.
Read 6 tweets
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Noah Smith
@Noahpinion
The other day, @tylercowen, @karlbykarlsmith, @MichaelRStrain and I had a round-table debate in @bopinion about the idea of very high tax rates on very high incomes.

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Michael Strain argued that high tax rates on high incomes could encourage people to choose less lucrative careers - for example, becoming nurses instead of doctors.
Tyler Cowen noted that if you only tax ordinary income at high rates, rich people will shift their income to other forms (like capital gains) that aren't taxed as highly.
Read 10 tweets

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BLUEPRINT
@BLUEPRINT_Q
1) A U.S. #Immigration thread.

Feb. 2018 @POTUS writes "Democrats Have Lost Their Way on Immigration" whitehouse.gov/articles/democ…

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Keeper Of Numbers
@Number_Keeper
The Suffocation of Democracy

By: Christopher R. Browning

THREAD✔
1/
As a historian specializing in the #Holocaust, #Nazi Germany, and #Europe in the era of the world wars, I have been repeatedly asked about the degree to which the current situation in the United States resembles the interwar period and the rise of #fascism in Europe.
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Jeffrey Peterson🇺🇸
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On Sept. 11, 2001, everyone watched in horror as our country was attacked. Here is a story about a friend who died on 9/11 as an #American hero. I first met John years ago, we had both trained and worked in the business of corporate finance out of #NYC. John was a good man.
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Alamo_on_the_rise
@AlamoOnTheRise
Trump: Day 558
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Bryan Dean Wright
@BryanDeanWright
Illegal minors can’t be imprisoned w/ adult parents. Bush & Obama released all onto US soil til judges ruled. Rife w/ abuse.

Trump stopped this by separating illegals & their kids, holding both in jails & camps. All to force DC to fix the broken system.

It’s a brutal strategy.
While we debate whether #Trump’s strategy is right (or humane), the facts are being distorted.

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Zach Everson
@Z_Everson
Trump Hotels' website still lists Trump SoHo New York among its properties in the Our Hotels menu. Select its name though to access its page and there's a message about it being renamed

bit.ly/2EPCSy1
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bit.ly/2CpL7z2
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