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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
New. #Brexit numbers (thread):

How would you vote if EURef held tomorrow?

Remain 53% (Lab 68% Remain)
Leave 47% (Cons 71% Leave)

ComRes Jan 15
"The result of 2016 referendum should be respected % shd be no 2nd EURef"

Agree 53%
Disagree 29%

Con voters 80% "agree", Lab voters split 41-39 for "disagree"

ComRes Jan 15
"There should be 2nd EURef which includes option to stay in EU"

Agree 35%
Disagree 48%

Con voters 75% "disagree", Lab split 49-32 for "agree"

ComRes Jan 15
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More from @GoodwinMJ see all

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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
Thinking on #HolocaustMemorialDay about one particular story among millions that I read recently at Yad Vashem, and which I've thought about most days since
A wealthy man who feared for his family's safety had sold his house & used the money to buy a diamond and emerald necklace, which he could use either in the future or to trade for their safety. The necklace was hidden under some floor boards
He & his wife were sent to the camps. His wife was murdered. He somehow managed to survive. He was eventually released & years later went back. The necklace was still there. He couldn't bring himself to sell it. He later donated it to Yad Vashem, where it still sits #WeRemember
Read 3 tweets
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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
New - it's still a coin toss

"Imagine there was referendum tomorrow. Should the UK remain a member of EU or leave?"

Remain 51%
Leave 49%

Leavers 92% "Leave"
Remainers 90% "Remain"
Conservatives 68% "Leave"
Labour 68% "Remain"

Survation Jan 11
"When negotiations are complete, would you support or oppose holding a People's Vote -a referendum- asking public their view?"

Support 46%
Oppose 34%
Don't know 20%

Leavers 58% "oppose"
Remainers 71% "support"
Cons 54% "oppose"
Lab 59% "support"

Survation Jan 11 #Brexit
"MPs are to vote on government Brexit withdrawal agreement next week. How would you like MPs to vote?"

For deal 36%
Against 40%
Don't know 23%

Leavers (46% For, 39% against, 15% dk)
Remainers (34% for, 48% against, 19% dk)

Survation Jan 11
Read 6 tweets
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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
Prime Minister May's dilemma

How Conservatives would vote in 2nd EURef combos

Remain 25%
V
May Deal 56%

Remain 27%
V
No Deal 63%

May Deal 33%
V
No Deal 51%

1st preference in three-way EURef: Leave with No Deal

Don't know/Wouldn't vote excluded
@ProfTimBale / YouGov survey
How Leavers would vote in 2nd EURef combos

Remain 11%
V
May Deal 55%

Remain 13%
V
No Deal 70%

May Deal 19%
V
No Deal 60%

Don't know/Wouldn't vote excluded
@ProfTimBale / YouGov survey
How Remainers would vote in 2nd EURef combos

Remain 84%
V
May Deal 6%

Remain 84%
V
No Deal 7%

May Deal 49%
V
No Deal 10%

Don't know/Wouldn't vote excluded
@ProfTimBale / YouGov survey
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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Lord Snoutintrough #FBPE
@Rowland72James
#BREXIT craziness update so maybots deal is blown out of the water l. Similarly corbyns vote of no confidence fails and won't be backed by SNP and lib dems
Despite her #BREXIT deal being defeated by biggest margin a government has lost a vote ever maybot seeks concessions on backstop despite being told to bog off by the EU with no realistic hope of a different answer
Corbyn meanwhile refuses to talk #BREXIT without no deal being ruled out despite knowing she can't do this whilst maybot makes no concessions either.
Read 14 tweets
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Lord Snoutintrough #FBPE
@Rowland72James
#brexit seems to be all about feeling over fact and this is especially true of the ReesMogg ERG faction of the Tory right.
I never bought the line that #brexit is about Democracy because most of the Tory right had zero enthusiasm for improving democracy in the UK few of them care about unelected house of lords the unfair FPTP electoral system or transparency on the contrary
Most of the Tory right are interested only in constitutional changes that suit them and if anything strive to be as little democratically accountable as possible.
Read 23 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) Core Labour #Brexit irony:
Corbyn is a (not so) secret brexiter

The largely remain Labour PLP tried to dislodge him after the referendum

He was saved by a wave of new Labour members

These new members are also overwhelmingly remainers

By saving him, they kept Brexit alive
2) these new members attack parts of the PLP for "plotting" & "undermining" Corbyn, whilst Corbyn tries to torpedo any Soft #Brexit Labour position

Only overwhelming support will force a debate on a #PeoplesVote at conference, against Corbyn's wishes

theguardian.com/politics/2018/…
3) this will be one of the great questions for future historians, how did so many people keep a Leader in power even though he was on the wrong side of an issue (#Brexit) that they passionately opposed and was directly against their interests?
Read 4 tweets
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Richard Broughton
@Richard_Ampere
Thread: How are UK online news outlets covering #Brexit in 2018? An analysis, with data and charts!

Part 3: Who’s outperforming the Shadow Cabinet in terms of influencing the #Brexit debate?

Answer: A small handful of Conservative & Labour Backbench MPs...

Read more...
For previous pieces (and methodology), see:

DExEU vs Shadow DExEU: and

Cabinet vs Shadow Cabinet:
So in yesterday's analysis, we saw how the Labour Frontbench had failed to drive column inches across online news outlets. Today, I look at how the Backbenchers and @LibDems are influencing the #Brexit debate.
Read 24 tweets
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Lesley Miller
@LesleyMillercyp
#Brexit 1
Cadbury moved factory 2 Poland 2011 with EU grant.
Ford Transit moved 2Turkey 2013 with EU grant.
Jaguar Land Rover recently agreed 2 build a new plant in Slovakia with EU grant, owned by Tata, same company who trashed our steel industry & emptied workers pension funds.
#Brexit 2
Peugeot closed its Ryton (was Rootes Group) plant and moved production to Slovakia with EU grant.
British Army's new Ajax fighting vehicles to be built in SPAIN using SWEDISH steel at the request of the EU to support jobs in Spain with EU grant, rather than Wales.
#Brexit 3
Dyson gone 2 Malaysia, with EU loan. Crown Closures, Bournemouth (Was METAL BOX), gone 2Poland with EU grant,employed 1,200.
M&S manufacturing gone 2far east with EU loan.
Hornby models gone. In fact all toys & models gone from UK along with patents all with EU grants
Read 28 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
#Brexit
1) Thread - All Brexits are bad and what we voted for
It's often said by brexiters that "it's not all about economics"
However, the *actual* Leave campaign was almost wholly about economic arguments

With the leak of this 2-8% report those arguments are now trashed
2) We seem to have forgotten this however economics played a huge part in the Vote Leave campaign, making up over 2/3rds of the primary arguements. The clear message was we would at the least be no worse off and at best much better off. 4 of the 6 below state this clearly
3) & the fact is voters believed we would be no worse off. People prioritized immigration certainly, but against a backdrop of there being no consequences from Brexit - few are prepared to actually pay for ending FoM
Read 36 tweets

Trending hashtags

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