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Amidst all Brexit noise, here’s an analysis thread of how we see things as of now (obv moving target)!
1/ Sceptical that May’s talks with other party leaders will succeed. Not consensual, still sticking to red lines, even if she’s broadened outreach to Corbyn
2/ More important: cross-party back channels involving Cooper, Benn, Boles, Grieve and Letwin; as we now know, their plans for Parliament to find its own compromise will come on 29 Jan (when May's revised deal will also be voted on)
3/ May still reluctant to budge on no deal. Believes it’ll strengthen her hand in talks with EU (possible next week). Thinks no deal risk might sway Tory and Labour MPs to back her revised deal in subsequent votes
4/ Probs only matter of time before she drops it; accepts logic of A50 extension before MPs impose it
5/ EU actively engaged in internal debate over how and on what terms to extend A50
6/ There are mixed positions, and a host of ancillary questions that need to be addressed, but overall, think position is softening
7/ Don’t see insurmountable problems for European elections (nor does EP legal advice)
8/ May resisting pressure for permanent customs union; could provoke more Cabinet resignations and MPs warning her it’ll split party; would make it much harder to woo 118 Tories who rebelled on Tues
9/ It would attract some Labour backbench support. But support from Corbyn not a given: he’s consistently avoided choice between facilitating and obstructing Brexit, and doesn’t want to throw May lifeline or share ownership of Brexit
10/ Still, think chances of customs union are rising
11/ In response, Brexiteer ministers fighting rear-guard action
12/ They argue Commons majority for revised deal lies with bigger number of Tory MPs who could be unlocked if DUP comes onside. Urging May’s Plan B to be time limit on backstop plus Canada-style deal
13/ This is tacit recognition that their preferred managed no deal now unlikely to fly
14/ But May (rightly) not confident EU will provide enough on backstop to satisfy Tory/DUP critics, so wants to explore whether softer Brexit could pass Commons
15/ If numbers not there, she’ll probs refocus attention on her own party
16/ We think prospects of referendum have fallen slightly, due to Corbyn dragging his feet. Majority for this would require official Labour support
17/ But referendum could emerge as winner if all specific Brexit plans are shot down, which many MPs believe likely
18/ Think Norway Plus also still realistic option. Its backers are locked in battle with those who favour referendum, since many Labour MPs could live with both
19/ But since many referendum backers sense chance of stopping Brexit altogether, they won’t back Norway option unless public vote is dead
20/ Also think prospect of general election is rising slightly (we were at 15%, now probs 20%). May says election would not be in national interest, but she ruled one out before calling one in 2017
21/ Outside chance she will conclude that seeking mandate for her deal in an election is only way to save it. But more likely is her losing vote of no confidence in Government
22/ Do want to thread our views about EU in 2019, which hope to do next week
