Thread by @DavidHenigUK

Things to remember in today's Brexit debate...

1/ You don't get a majority just by 'fixing' the Irish backstop, without more Labour MP backing

2/ The Irish backstop is still the symptom of Brexit, it is the failure to work out our future relationship and the expectation we won't be able to do so in 2-4 years that makes the backstop so problematic

3/ The EU may have indicated to various well-placed journalists that they could yet change the deal, but to do so they want to be sure the PM can get a majority - and see point 1, they know that's not just about the backstop

4/ The PM cannot in fact avoid a Conservative Party split on the EU as there is already a party split, by continuing to favour one faction over another she could make it worse, rather than just isolating the split onto this one issue

5/ While Parliament cannot guarantee no hard-Brexit it would be a constitutional crisis the likes of which we hadn't seen for 400 years if the Government were to ignore a clear instruction not to pursue an extension and go for no-deal

6/ While Corbyn clearly is not going to ever come out for a second referendum, he has been clear he is against no-deal, presuming he sticks to this there is a clear Parliamentary majority against no-deal

7/ Business is already putting in place their contingency plans, some of which involve jobs leaving the UK, much of which involves unnecessary spend, ergo, they aren't concentrating on growth right now but survival

8/ It is entirely logical for the EU and all other countries to wait to see what will happen in Parliament in the next week, so fresh talks are likely to be futile - and we presume this is the case of recent PM-EU leader phone calls

Conclusion: Most of the interesting action takes place behind the scenes this week. Corbyn + soft Brexit tories = majority, so the question is what they can agree on. As for the PM's strategy, doomed to fail, question whether that is deliberate