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I don't think enough people on *both* sides of the Brexit debate really understand how bad "no deal" would be.
Brexit isn't a continuum. There's Remain, then a gap, then Norway+, TM's deal, Canada+ etc. And then there's a Grand Canyon chasm. On the other side lies no deal.
Brexit isn't a continuum. There's Remain, then a gap, then Norway+, TM's deal, Canada+ etc. And then there's a Grand Canyon chasm. On the other side lies no deal.
Brexit basically is like declaring war on our own economy. There's Norway+ (pointed sticks & rocks), TM's deal (guns and knives), Canada+ (machine guns and tanks).
No deal is like dropping the H-bomb on ourselves. It's so bad, it shouldn't even feature in the same conversation.
No deal is like dropping the H-bomb on ourselves. It's so bad, it shouldn't even feature in the same conversation.
If Parliament manage to get no deal off the table, that's a big win. We should recognise it as such. It's not enough. Not nearly enough. Not by a long, long way. But it will ensure the damage is "survivable".
After that it's all about limitation.
After that it's all about limitation.
And that means we should move heaven and earth not to put no deal back on the table. As, for instance, might happen in a second referendum.
If Parliament can't stop no deal, then that's a different story of course. Maybe ref 2 is the answer to killing ND in that situation.
If Parliament can't stop no deal, then that's a different story of course. Maybe ref 2 is the answer to killing ND in that situation.
But if Parliament takes the biggest baddest danger off the table, we shouldn't contrive to put it back on.
Even if the prize is remain.
Because those pushing for hard Brexit will milk that second chance for all it's worth. They know they'll never get another crack at it.
Even if the prize is remain.
Because those pushing for hard Brexit will milk that second chance for all it's worth. They know they'll never get another crack at it.
Because first time around, Remain was complacent (guilty!) It assumed it couldn't possibly lose because facts and reality were clearly on the Remain side (guilty!)
We - and I very much include myself in this - cannot afford the same mistakes a second time around.
We - and I very much include myself in this - cannot afford the same mistakes a second time around.
But what do we have to offer a second time around that's genuinely *different*?
Because telling people they were stupid, cheated, gullible, lied to won't work. If anything, that approach may generate more pushback than it gains new converts.
So what else is there?
Because telling people they were stupid, cheated, gullible, lied to won't work. If anything, that approach may generate more pushback than it gains new converts.
So what else is there?
How do we fight in an arena in which facts have become largely irrelevant? In which prominent politicians can go on TV, on the radio, or to the newspapers, and lie, lie, and lie again with absolute impunity?
Because shouting "they're lying!" won't work.
So what else is there?
Because shouting "they're lying!" won't work.
So what else is there?
I don't have the answer.
But every part of me screams that we need that answer before risking another major confrontation.
But every part of me screams that we need that answer before risking another major confrontation.
And if you thought the first referendum was bad, this is a taste of what we will be up against second time around...
How do you fight that? When facts don't work? When most people are bored, have tuned out, aren't listening? Where the status quo you have to unseat is the vote to leave? When the Government will be pushing hard for Brexit?
I. Don't. Know.
But I know we better have an answer!
I. Don't. Know.
But I know we better have an answer!
