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Thread. A direct call to @UKLabour to face up to the Brexit choice ahead. If you cannot get the Brexit you desire, will you accept the best the Govt has to offer, resist that and enable a no deal Brexit, or try to revoke A50? 1/
Theresa May herself has said that there are only two ways to avoid a no deal Brexit. Either we agree a Brexit deal (in Parliament and with the EU); or we revoke the A50 notice. (An extension can only defer this choice). 2/
The Govt (in the face of a 230 vote defeat) is seeking ways to bolster support for the WA. It has tacked towards the ERG, and is seeking to change the backstop. It has not tacked towards Labour's softer Brexit. 3/
There is no suggestion of compromise. The EU are insisting on the backstop. The ERG are insisting that it be changed. The Govt is sticking to its red lines. It is eminently foreseeable that no better deal will be agreed. 4/
Thus, Labour's attempt to refashion the WA and PD looks very likely to fail. As said at the outset, it will very soon be decision time. Let me try to assess the alternatives. 5/
I'll assume, and I think I am right to assume, that Labour will have at least these 3 objectives: a) to enable it to pursue its version of Brexit; b) to try to win power in the GE; and c) to try to maintain Party unity. 6/
(Incidentally, I've long argued that Labour's position should have shifted towards remain, but I am under no illusions that it has not done so, and that the leadership is committed to delivering its version of Brexit.) 7/
Option 1 is to back the Government's deal (Labour support/abstentions will almost certainly be needed to enable the WA to pass; so the Party's decision is critical). 8/
That is a credible route towards Labour's vision of Brexit. The key will be to agree a soft future relationship deal, with the required customs union and single market commitments. But, it fails in relation to Labour's other objectives. 9/
It provides a boost to TM. Hopes of a GE seem to rely on the goodwill of the DUP. And, it creates a very real risk of alienating the Party from its membership. There are very strong political - not strictly Brexit related - reasons why Labour should not back the deal. 10/
If Labour vote to reject the deal, and if as a result it falls, no deal would loom very large indeed. It is, I suppose, possible that Labour's Brexit vision could be built from no deal, but it would be starting from the worst possible place. 11/
It is very likely that a GE would ensue - and possible that Labour may benefit from the Tories' misfortune. It is almost certain that no deal would split the Party. And the damage to the country should make it unthinkable. 12/
There is, in any event, very clear opposition to no deal. Ruling out no deal is the precondition for talks between Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn. But... if Labour will not allow a deal to pass, the only way to avoid no deal is to revoke the A50 notice. 13/
I can fully understand why this option does not appeal to the Labour leadership. It is a reversal of the Brexit process launched in 2017 with Labour support, in the wake of the historic 2016 referendum. 14/
Revoke is not a good outcome. It would represent a huge failure of the Brexit process (a fact accepted by 83% in a recent poll). Now; it was never going to be easy to turn a vote for an abstract leave into majority support for any concrete leave. 15/
But the Govt, and more broadly the UK, has, how shall I put it, not gone about the process well. The fundamental choices have not been acknowledged, let alone confronted. Corrosive betrayal narratives abound. 16/
My argument is that revoke cannot and should not close the Brexit debate. There is an urgent need to heal divisions, and in the wake of any Parliamentary decision to revoke, there will be a need to reconsider the Brexit question. 17/
Legally, what is required is an unconditional and unequivocal to revoke. That ends the Brexit process. The UK remains an EU member state, with all its rights intact. Those rights include... the right to decide whether to leave the EU. 18/
Were Labour to back revoke, it could do so while making the pledge that it would reconsider the UK's relationship with the EU and the wider world. It could take the time to work out whether it wants to Brexit, and if so, on what basis. 19/
So... back to assessing revoke with reference to Labour's objectives. It enables the Labour vision of Brexit to develop. If it attracts support within the Party and among the people, the UK will be able to trigger A50 again, this time with a plan. 20/
Revocation would almost certainly be followed by a GE, as a new democratic mandate is sought. And, perhaps crucially, it affords Labour time to bridge the gap between the Labour leadership and its members. 21/
Let me try to sum up yet another thread which has become far too long. I feel like I have repeating myself for the last month... it stems from frustration that the debate is failing to move forward, and a growing sense that no deal is a very real possibility. 22/
To avoid no deal, Labour's first choice (its Plan A) is to refashion the WA and PD, to enable it to back Brexit. It may have to decide how far to compromise; on how far it is prepared to endorse what will, for Labour, be a 'bad' Brexit deal. 23/
If it is not prepared to back whatever deal the UK manages to secure in what is sure to be a frantic month ahead, and if it wants to avoid no deal, it will have to back revoke (perhaps after an extension has prolonged the agony). 24/
In this thread, I have tried to build a positive case for revoke, and to explain that it provides a way to reconsider the Brexit question with the luxury of time. 25/
To avoid no deal, Labour has to choose between allowing the WA/PD to pass, and revoke, which allows it to make its case for its Brexit vision. The thread builds on, or perhaps rehashes, the argument here. blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/12… 26/26
