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Things are becoming increasingly difficult to make sense of. Ahead of tomorrow's votes, a thread on the increasingly absurd goings on. 1/
First, as @davidallengreen never tires of saying, unless something happens, we leave by the operation of the law on March 29 with no deal. 2/
We avoid that outcome only by a) agreeing a deal; b) extending A50; or c) revoking A50. If b), we still have to choose either a) or c) at the end of extension, or it will be no deal. 3/
There is a deal on the table. It's the withdrawal agreement and political declaration agreed in November. The one which fell to a historic 230 vote defeat this month. 4/
We still don't know when there might be another vote in Parliament on an exit deal. We still don't know what sort of deal might be able to secure support in Parliament. 5/
Tomorrow's vote, on the Govt's statement from last week and some amendments (to be selected by the Speaker), aims to show us a path forward. To show us what sort of deal might secure support in Parliament. 6/
The small detail that any such 'new' deal will then have to be renegotiated with the EU seems to have escaped many. As too does the EU's oft-repeated insistence that the WA (including the backstop) will not be reopened. 7/
In the aftermath of the Govt's historic defeat, commentators were expecting the Govt to shift its position - either towards the ERG/DUP (and to focus on the backstop) or towards Labour (and to focus on a softer PD). 8/
Instead, Theresa May's approach has been to expect compromises from others - but not from herself. 9/
There's a lot of comment on here about the amendments. The Brady amendment is about the finality of the backstop. The Cooper amendment to mandate seeking an extension in lieu of a no deal on March 29. 10/
The Labour amendment gestures non-committedly towards a people's vote. The (latest) Grieve amendment seeks to allow Parliament greater control of the process. 11/
It is almost impossible to make sense of the public positions adopted by the various Parties and factions within those Parties. 12/
The backstop amendment looks set to be backed by the Govt (which itself negotiated and agreed the backstop). It looks set to be rejected by the ERG (who have been calling for finality). 13/
The Cooper amendment does not take no deal off the table. Yet it is being presented as though it does. It is not clear that it has the support of the Labour leadership, who claim that no deal should be taken off the table as a precondition for talks with TM. 14/
I could go on. I can't make much sense of it. It is difficult to predict how the votes will go tomorrow. It is also difficult to know what the consequences of those votes will be. 15/
My best guess is that we will end the day no wiser as to the likely outcome; and no closer to identifying the contours of a deal which can command Parliamentary support AND lead to a new deal with the EU. 16/
And, as the clock ticks on, the prospect of no deal looms ever larger. 17/
The Brexit process is, again, failing. The big majority of MPs who voted to allow the PM to trigger A50, who want to leave the EU with a deal, cannot agree - or even it seems try to agree - on what that deal should be. 18/
If they are unable to do so, they have to confront the consequences of their failure. Their choice becomes very stark. To allow no deal, or to revoke the A50 notice. 19/
And so, once again, my positive case for revoke (and reconsider). It's looking like much the best option from here. blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/12… 20/20
