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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Given how polarised the debate over Brexit is, and how obscure and technical many of the key conflicts are, I wonder how difficult it would be to get a substantial share of Leave or Remain voters to strongly support or oppose a wholly invented proposal?
My suspicion is that as soon as you gave people a cue as to which side liked the invented proposal, they'd have an opinion:

"Leading leave campaigners expressed interest in the Sokovia Accord. One said "it could be the breakthrough we need."
"Activists pushing to soften Brexit are excited about the Ern Malley compromise, which would enable stronger access to the European Single Market in Sprockets and Doohickeys"
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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
The pernicious power of two pervasive, persistent mythical narratives:
1. "Working class" (actually, low education, socially conservative) Leavers are only group Lab needs to worry about
2. Fate of US Democrats holds lessons for British left
The firsts leans on the "Leave seats=leave votes" error which I have discussed many times. The second is an older error (and, ironically, another point of continuity with pre-Corbyn Labour). US politics is just too different to UK politics for lessons to be drawn from Dems.
Aside from that, the "look at how the Dems lost" narrative ignores the fact that Dems won (1) a majority of the popular vote in 2016 and (2) a substantial majority in the House of Reps in 2018 (nearest analogy to the House of Commons, if we are going to play this game)
Read 5 tweets
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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
Get very tired of this lazy criticism - eg whole massive network of politics researchers associated with @UKandEU have been doing public events and media work continuously for years on Brexit. Massive conference on public opinion in C London just last week...
Another example - annual British Social Attitudes reports looking at the mood of the nation every year - entirely focussed on reaching broad audience
A third - British Election Study has written teams of blogs and reports, done dozens of major media events, makes all its data publically available and co-PI @ProfJaneGreen fronted the ITV election coverage providing live analysis.
Read 5 tweets
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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
The problem with this arg is that there is a strong correlation in the electorate between imm, nationalism (economic & otherwise) and Euroscepticism
There are nationalist Eurosceptic voters, but they are anti-imm
There are pro-imm voters, but they are nationalist and Eurosceptic.
A platform of pro-immigration Eurosceptic economic nationalism is thus giving Labour a position held by virtually no voters.

A similar problem occurs with Corbyn's unusual stance of supporting much more liberal asylum policy while opposing economic immigration
Some of the contradiction could be resolved by partisanship and relative salience. But only if salience of EU falls for social liberals who would support this stance from Lab on immigration (which it might in time, though not in the near term I suspect).
Read 5 tweets

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