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What will CO₂ emissions do in 2019?
IMF estimates GDP to grow 3.5% in 2019, & that implies:
* 1.6% CO₂ growth if CO₂/GDP improves as in the last decade,
* <0% CO₂ grow requires CO₂/GDP to have one of largest recorded declines
(figure: growth rates for GDP, CO₂, CO₂/GDP)
IMF estimates GDP to grow 3.5% in 2019, & that implies:
* 1.6% CO₂ growth if CO₂/GDP improves as in the last decade,
* <0% CO₂ grow requires CO₂/GDP to have one of largest recorded declines
(figure: growth rates for GDP, CO₂, CO₂/GDP)
If the predicted GDP growth transpires, the @MLiebreich prediction of a decline in CO₂ emissions is rather bold. I would like to think he is on the money, but even the 2014-2016 CO₂/GDP would not get us there. 2/4
I am not sure of the Trump links, but the 2014-2016 lower CO₂ growth was due to larger than expected declines in US & Chinese coal. If we don't have something like that in 2019, then something else will have to pick up to get CO₂ emissions down. 3/4
carbonbrief.org/analysis-globa…
carbonbrief.org/analysis-globa…
As a side note, in the @gcarbonbudget we don't do projections based on GDP growth (as I did in the first tweet in the thread), but use monthly data where available. The "All Others" is based on GDP. (Most of the hard work done by @robbie_andrew). 4/4
