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I think this, from @bbclaurak, probably captures the state of Government and Parliament confusion over Brexit as well as anything I've seen - but it needs a little fleshing out... quick thread 1/ bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…
Negotiations wise, we're all expecting that the most the EU will offer is a legal letter that the backstop is intended to be temporary. It isn't going to be enough for conservative hardliners, but the EU judges nothing can satisfy them 2/
The EU had little faith the PM could carry Parliament before the first vote, after it and the Brady amendment they have none. So they're doing the counting, and reckon the deal or a softer Brexit can pass. No need then to change red lines 3/
The PM has no negotiating credibility with the EU, her own hardliners, her moderate wing, or the Labour Party. Then add to that a lack of control of Parliament (no Brexit primary legislation is being progressed) and that is the mess she's in 4/
The ERG has no need to compromise as their no-deal prize is in view, and they're on the front foot after getting a couple of moderates to back their hard line under the guise of compromise. 5/
The Labour leadership doesn't particularly want to be on the front foot, given their cracks on Brexit are nearly as large as those in the Conservatives. But they're not going to help too much, and Government offers have so far been transparently insincere, easy to refuse 6/
The Parliamentary timetable is worth considering if you're not a no-deal supporter - if there's a deal on March 21 that gives one week of Parliamentary time, which seems unlikely to be enough, but by then too late to ask for an extension? 7/
One other factor, does the voice of business get louder? I've heard it expressed several times that in any other country lorry drivers would be now be blocking Parliament. The noise is growing, but is still notably moderate 8/
What this all adds up to is that unless Conservative moderates are boosted by ministerial resignations and can quickly find cause with nearly the entire Labour party for an alternative, the PM is going to keep kicking the can. Nothing else she can do 9/
Every week that passes more business leaves the UK, and no-deal is an ever stronger possibility. And you wonder if for some MPs that's almost the easiest thing, for there is a ready-made scapegoat in Number 10 if it all goes badly wrong 10/ end
PS if there's a deal at the last minute exporters and importers may not know until literally one day before hand their basis for trade for almost the entire world #notagoodplan
