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326 Politics
@326Pols
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Quick word of warning regarding turnout-adjusted results of the latest two polls, in which the Tories have opened up a large lead: creation of @TheIndGroup has moved many 2017 Labour voters into the "Don't know" category, even when TIG are excluded from polling prompts (1/3)
These "Don't knows" are then excluded from voting projections, even though they will still likely turn out to vote for Labour/TIG. As such, Labour's vote share is probably being underestimated while Labour/TIG undecideds make up their mind. Let's give it a few weeks and see (2/3)
Important to note though, that even with Labour's vote share being underestimated, the CON lead was still present before the split, and I would be confident that they remain ahead. (3/3)
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