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Toby Nangle
@toby_n
, 5 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
I see Michael Johnson is calling for putting present value of State pension in WGA again brightblue.org.uk/tackling-inter…
I can see the point of this if your ambition is to a) cut the State pension; b) do something else with the result.
I can’t see an argument right now in his doc for (b).
Which makes me wonder why the present value of future healthcare payments, future military spending, future police spending should not also be included in WGAs.
Or maybe we should just continue to understand that doing this would be weird.
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Toby Nangle
@toby_n
Hoped @haskelecon would thread main points of his speech today on his personal a/c (which wld I think be a CB first!). But in its absence, here’s my précis 1/n
Business investment only 9% of GDP, but way volatile. Affects both demand (bidding stuff away: inflationary!) and supply (using this stuff to make more stuff: deflationary!). 2/n
Looks like something happened the UK in mid-16 to to weaken business investment vs G7 peers… 3/n
Read 6 tweets
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Toby Nangle
@toby_n
Précis of Silvana Tenreyro speech yesterday on Y-star:

Estimating potential output (Y*) is tricksy at the best of times. But it is unaffected by monpol. 1/n
Still, building some idea as to what Y* is is preferable to not even trying. (If you reckon that the output gap has any bearing on inflation.) Why? Timeliness & Trade-offs. 2/n
Timeliness appears to be becoming less important. MonPol works with ‘long & variable lags’, but not so much in recent decades. So MonPol response can be more nimble. 3/n
Read 8 tweets
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Toby Nangle
@toby_n
Just read the Saunders speech. Here’s the précis.

Borrowing & lending rates have usually moved with Bank rate. Not so much this cycle. 1/n
Lack of pass-through on deposit rates is because (absent -ve rates for depositors), depositors hit the ZLB. UK not unique here. 2/n
Folks looking for higher mortgage spreads living in pre-GFC wholesale funding world. We live now in a deposit funded world. Mortgage NIMs fine. 3/n
Read 7 tweets

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