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Edwin Hayward🦄🏹🗡️
@uk_domain_names
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
The UK's proposed "we'll look the other way and disregard the rules to avoid a hard border in Ireland" no-deal Brexit plan only covers half the picture. It dumps the responsibility on Ireland for goods flowing north into NI.
gov.uk/guidance/eu-ex…
In other words, in our quest to avoid a hard border, not only will we be breaking the rules, but we will be *relying on Ireland to break them too*. If Ireland imposes tariffs and checks (as it should) on goods flowing from Ireland to NI, bingo that's a hard border.
But Ireland's going to find itself squeezed between a rock and a hard place (We put it there!) because if it breaks the rules, then the EU may be forced to impose a hard border between Ireland and the EU26 to maintain *its* legal obligations.
So, the hard border becomes Someone Else's Problem. But it doesn't go away. And when you trace the issue all the way back, then it's very very clear that we are the root cause of all the trouble. Lovely!
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More from @uk_domain_names see all

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Edwin Hayward🦄🏹🗡️
@uk_domain_names
Esther McVey states on #ridge that she will be voting for Theresa May's deal because no-deal has been taken off the table. Even though she also maintains that TM's deal is a bad deal. Cognitive dissonance at its finest.
She also brushes aside the suggestion that an A50 extension would give an opportunity for negotiating a better deal, stating that because no-deal is now off the table, we won't be able to negotiate better because our leverage is gone.
Ok, here's her "logic": we stood on a manifesto saying that no deal is better than a bad deal. Theresa May's deal is a bad deal. So we should have left with no deal to meet the manifesto commitment.
Read 4 tweets
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Edwin Hayward🦄🏹🗡️
@uk_domain_names
Things that are NOT legally binding:-
A) 2016 Brexit referendum
B) Vote to take no deal off the table
C) Vote to extend Article 50

Legally binding things:-
D) Article 50
E) Losing all our international treaties, arrangements & trade deals
F) No deal by default on 29 March
Bear the above in mind when you're reading news stories, because most gloss over the fact that the things MPs decided last week are only politically binding (i.e. it "looks bad" if Theresa May doesn't do them) but not legally binding (i.e. TM is not obliged to do them)
Meanwhile, all the really bad stuff IS legally binding. We can't change E) no matter what Brexit deal we come up with, though if we get a transition period, that will mask most of the effects of the loss for a while. And of course we can negotiate new treaties etc. eventually.
Read 4 tweets
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Edwin Hayward🦄🏹🗡️
@uk_domain_names
The amendment Labour are planning to back would require a referendum on Theresa May's deal vs remain, in order to validate her deal. But danger is that could itself be amended before the referendum occurs, e.g. to turn it into TM's deal vs no deal.
theguardian.com/politics/2019/…
It also establishes a bad precedent because it in effect says "Theresa May, we think your deal is good enough to be worth presenting to the people" but up until now Labour have adamantly maintained it's a terrible deal, and nothing will have changed.
It's like making a chocolate cake using manure rather than the finest Belgian dark, then saying "well, if people are stupid enough to vote to eat it..." The responsible thing would be to leave the manure in the sack where it belongs, and push to use more palatable ingredients.
Read 4 tweets

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Antonello Guerrera
@antoguerrera
(THREAD IN ITALIAN)
Alla vigilia di una settimana decisiva, una piccola guida sulla "strana" offerta di Barnier oggi, il flop dell'appello di May, quello che sta succedendo e quello che potrebbe accadere a breve. Dedicato a tutti i fanatici e gli appassionati di #Brexit. 😊🇬🇧🇪🇺
Eccoci. Allora oggi a Grimbsy la premier britannica May ha lanciato l'ennesimo ultimatum ("o il mio piano o niente #Brexit") ma soprattutto ha chiesto all'Europa più flessibilità sul backstop, vero stallo dei negoziati tra Uk e Ue, cioè la clausola voluta dall'Europa in Irlanda
2. (Parentesi: in queste mie "istruzioni per l'uso" - che aggiornerò a breve - trovate la spiegazione di Backstop, se non la ricordate - e in questo caso, non vi preoccupate, è normalissimo 😊 - e molte altre spiegazioni su #Brexit )
lab.gedidigital.it/repubblica/201…
Read 37 tweets
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Michel Barnier
@MichelBarnier
👇 I briefed EU27 Ambassadors and EP today on the ongoing talks with #UK. Following the EU-UK statement of 20 Feb, the EU has proposed to the UK a legally binding interpretation of the #Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. Most importantly:
2/5 The arbitration panel can already, under Article 178 WA, give UK the right to a proportionate suspension of its obligations under the backstop, as a last resort, if EU breaches its best endeavours/good faith obligations to negotiate alternative solutions.
3/5 EU ready to give legal force to all commitments from January letter of @eucopresident and @JunckerEU through joint interpretative statement. europa.eu/!Kj44wR This will render best endeavour/good faith obligations even more actionable by an arbitration panel.
Read 5 tweets
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Katy Hayward
@hayward_katy
Who isn’t fed up of the #Brexit hell-on-wheels show?
We want certainty, agreement, realism... In fact, we need compromise!

Could the #MalthouseCompromise be the olive branch that shows sign of dry land on the distant horizon? 🕊️
(I'm thinking esp of you, @BorderIrish)
1/15
The Malthouse Compromise involves 2 Plans.
Plan A: limit transition to Dec 2021 & then go to ‘A Better Deal’.
Plan B: have a quasi transition period & prepare for WTO rules kicking in on 1 Jan 2021.
The choice is clear for the EU, right?
Except…
2/15
…380gtk22pbxgw-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/upl…
…it’s not.
Because the #MalthouseCompromise really doesn’t meet the challenges that the Protocol in the Withdrawal Agreement tries to meet.

Let’s remember the purpose of the Protocol:

3/15
Read 15 tweets
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Gavan Reilly
@gavreilly
#Brexit thread:

So. Tomorrow the House of Commons will vote on a series of possible amendments to Theresa May's 'Plan B' - or rather the 'plan of action to achieve a Plan B' - which itself officially reads as follows:
The amendment most likely to pass – and therefore the one on which most attention has been paid – is this one from Conservative party chairman Sir Graham Brady. It's effectively an instruction to go back and seek *some unstated other way* to avoid a hard border in Ireland:
Tonight, Theresa May has asked her backbenchers to vote in favour of this amendment. She is basically asking them to tie her hands, so that Brussels will clearly know what it would take to win the Commons' backing for any deal.
Read 9 tweets
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Mark Stone
@Stone_SkyNews
So the wheels have hit tarmac on one of the key #brexit conundrums:
Everyone is working so hard to find a deal that avoids a hard border in Ireland.. but if they fail, and there is ‘no deal’, then by default, there is a hard border. The @EU_Commission finally spelt that out today
Here is what EU Commission Spokesman @MargSchinas said on the issue - 🎥
The spokesman is drawing the logical conclusion to the argument of those proposing that the #Brexit deal *must* include a ‘backstop’ to avoid a hard border: that if there if there is ‘no deal’, then a hard Irish border is unavoidable.
Read 12 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
So @DominicRaab and Brexiteers think a defeat for @theresa_may
on Dec 11 will allow the UK to renegotiate the Irish backstop, specifically the right to leave unilaterally.

Here's why, after chats with both sides, that ain't happening IMO. 1/thread

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@DominicRaab @theresa_may First Raab thinks a PM that shows some "will and resolve" can get the EU to change its mind.

But his own experience must tell him different. Remember his own failed tilt at @simoncoveney demanding three-month exit clause? Fail. /2

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@DominicRaab @theresa_may @simoncoveney But even allowing for disingenuousness, there are 3 reasons why the EU is not bluffing when it says it won't renegotiate the backstop to give the UK a unilateral walkout clause.

1. They actually want to avoid a hard border
2. Political solidarity
3. They don't buy UK bluff /3
Read 20 tweets

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