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Brexit upsum (to celebrate not leaving at 23:00 tonight). 1/ All the momentum is towards Customs Union/ Second Referendum, not towards backing May's deal. DUP considering it, SNP talking to Tory moderates about it. Labour didn't whip against it this week...
2/ If May backs herself into a corner where it's No Deal or a General Election, the Tories will disintegrate. Their hardcore voting base wants No Deal and nobody will support May as PM. They will self-suppress their own vote anyway...
3/ So the Customs Union option is like the bottom of the valley: I always said the water would find its course, irrespective of parties/positions. For those actively implementing Labour's strategy the key is to make all deals conditional on a Second Referendum...
4/ The CU, and indeed May's deal, are so far from the lies that were sold to the Brexit voters that a) its' only fair to put it to them again and b) many will understand UK actually has more sovereignty staying in than leaving on these terms...
5/ The fascists and the Leave rallies: they were separate and had a clear class distinction. Unremarked by the BBC, all its vox-pops on the Farage march were with Home Counties types; Yaxley-Lennon's fuhrer rally, and the "football lads" march were classic drunk boneheads...
6/ This is important because the task of the left is to separate off the vast majority of decent working class people who voted Leave from the activists: the extreme nature of the bonhead component of today's movement, and the petit bourgeois nature of the rest helps us do this..
7/ What should Labour do? a) Vote for, but not whip, the Customs Union as on 27/3. b) Whip for the conference position of a second referendum c) maintain pressure on the waverers not to support May's deal...
8/ Today's defeat for May happened, crucially, because Labour MPs have not fragmented under pressure. Hundreds of phone-calls, texts and conversations were had, appealing to class solidarity - and it worked....
9/ This shows Labour is the only all-British institution that can straddle Leave/Remain and reflect both pressures, subsuming them in party loyalty for now. Every member should be proud of this and Corbyn above all: he has ground May to dust...
10/ On Monday, if a majority emerges for Customs Union confirmed by a second referendum, MPs should make it the law of the land. It means a long extension - but it does not execute Brexit... it would be a request to the EU.
11/ If during that extension the Tories call an election, I will fight tooth and nail to commit Labour to a Remain position in its manifesto. A Labour-led government, with the SNP/PC/Greens - and the Libs/TIG supporting remain from outside, will bury the Tories for a generation.
12/ The European Elections will be a challenge. Unless Labour commits to remain and reform in those elections, it will suppress its own vote and open a gap for the TIG/Liberals/SNP to step into. In any case its MEP candidates are pro-EU...
13/ A final thought. If the Tories lose power, there is no chance the resulting parliament could enact Brexit. Even with a small Labour majority, it would only take a few PLP rebels to stop any Brexit bill. With a Labour minority government (SNP support) Brexit is dead...
14/ The remaining dangers are a) the EU caves on the backstop b) the "nod and a wink to 30 Labour rebels" strategy, favoured by Lexiteers in the Shadow Cabinet, is revived.
15/15 Rubbish TV news barely understands: Corbyn fought hard, personally, today for every Labour vote against the deal - and the defeat of May is his triumph. Because he doesn't go around doing the power stance belies the fact: he's UK's most powerful politician tonight.
