Thread by @pauldalyesq

The tweet below was meant in jest but it triggers a terrible thought.

What if the future is now?

What if the UK never even makes it to transition?

What if Brexit is stuck in the A50 period, on an endless loop?

Indefinite, infinite negotiations, in London & Brussels...

Thread

https://twitter.com/APHClarkson/status/1107646258959867911

Brexit is difficult because it asks UK politicians to trade off economic interests against national sovereignty.

Michel Barnier's famous "Stairway to Brexit" slide illustrates the point.

The further the UK goes, the freer Parliament is...but at an increasingly higher price.

A remarkable feature of the last few weeks of indicative votes and cross-party negotiations is how difficult UK politicians have found it to make those trade-offs *even in the abstract*

We haven't even got to concrete decisions which would cost real constituents their real jobs!

Is there any reason to think that Britain will ever be able to make the painful trade-offs implied by Brexit?

Isn't it entirely plausible to think that Britain will continue to talk about and negotiate Brexit without ever actually accomplishing it?

Remaining in an Article 50 purgatory would delay the point of decision, perhaps forever.

Extension requests -- now, all drama and last-minute grandstanding -- would become routinised, maybe even put on a statutory basis.

Beyond the difficulty of the trade-offs, maybe perpetual negotiations are what a deeply divided Britain needs?

Remainers want to stay in the EU: no soft Brexit for them.

Leavers want out: no soft Brexit for them.

Maybe the answer lies in the middle: Britain neither in nor out.

Last-minute dashes to Brussels, late-night cross-party negotiations, summit drama, select committee hearings...

Great for social media! Oceans of clickbait! Plenty of platforms! Billions of Boris columns!

All on an endless loop.

And it would suit the UK's main political parties, wouldn't it?

Conservatives and Labour alike are hopelessly split.

Leaders procrastinate because making a Brexit decision could be fatal for their parties' futures.

Far better to bluster and posture, safe in the A50 cocoon.

For these reasons many have concluded that Britain will never get out of a Brexit "transition period".

But what if Britain never even makes it out of the Article 50 period?

What if today's endless negotiations are the new normal?

2016-2019 on an endless loop.

This suits the EU too, by the way.

With all the chaos in Britain there has been less pressure on the Commission and Council to map out a post-Brexit future of EU-UK relations.

There's none yet: they have been reactive, not active

For there are difficult trade-offs there too.

How many special privileges to give to the UK over time, recognising and benefitting from its economic, military and diplomatic force without compromising core EU values or inciting others to head for the exit?

If and when Brexit happens, these questions become more urgent

Far better, as much for the EU as for the UK, to avoid answering them.

Sometimes the best way to answer a question is to stop asking it.

This would be the most British of Brexits.

Loudly announced a departure from the party, only to realise the keys are locked in the car.

Waiting, embarrassed, in the hallway.

Hearing the conversation from outside the room but powerless to go any further.

Ends*

* Not really...