Thread by @Kianayema

My advice / appeal to fellow Indians voting in this election [A thread].

I've held off saying something this direct so far.

2. Partly because I wasn't sure how my employer would react to me endorsing or criticising a political party.

Partly because this set of thoughts was still ricocheting back & forth, and only recently clicked into a somewhat coherent form.

3. On the former, I figure the "views personal" disclaimer I've been wasting Twitter bio character count on has to be worth something. In case this needs further disclaiming - the views that follow are my own, and should not be ascribed to any other person or institution.

4. On the latter, something about developments in Sudan, Algeria, Turkey, and Afghanistan made India's current choice come in to sharp focus.

5. What do I mean by that?

Well, I study political violence. Specifically, I study how national & international institutions contribute to the onset, sustaining, and resolution of armed conflict, whether internal or international.

6. Some findings are pretty clear. Broadly speaking, when a central authority in a state tries to consolidate power, it suggests violence is near. Especially if they
a) try to undermine institutions that ensure impartiality / equal justice; &
b) appeal to polarised identities.

7. Algeria, Sudan, Turkey, and Afghanistan all represent different points on this continuum of centralization - undermining institutions - weaponising divisive identities - violent "purification".

It struck me that India does too.

8. Had actually read about this back in 2016. Scott Straus ( cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/?GCOI=801… ) suggests that the two things that let India escape widespread / genocidal violence were federalism (on the political level) & an inclusive, post-colonial (anti-colonial?) identity.

9. I felt, even then, that this explanation was missing how peculiar Indian federalism is, with multiple formal & informal institutions that act as checks against excessive central authority.

Indian federalism is overly central on the one hand, very inefficient on the other.

10. This arrangement frustrates purists at either end of the spectrum - but it makes a lot of sense if you think about how such a diverse agglomeration of communities & interests can run, especially in the 50s & 60s, when the centre didn't have money to spread around.

11. TL;DR - institutions in independent India, starting with the Constitution, have one overarching goal: prevent a majoritarian takeover, even at the cost of inefficiency.

12. We can either be a constitutional Republic or a hindu rashtra.

This is the first election in my lifetime (I'm 32) when the choice has been that stark.

Because the last five years have shown that Modi & Shah's BJP chooses the latter, institutions be damned.

13. As a result, what I propose we do is systematically & strategically vote to defeat the BJP. Vote for whoever has the best chance in your constituency of beating the BJP.

Every other priority, every other identity can wait.

(Have to pause for now, but I'll come back to list ways in which this government has undermined, weakened, and point-blank disrespected constitutional institutions. Watch this space. Or add to it, if you will.)

14. Back to this: when I say institutions, keep in mind that covers three broad sets of things - entities (like courts, Parliaments etc.), rules (laws, election code of conduct, how a money bill passes Parliament), and norms (unwritten expectations - e.g. doing press interviews.)

15. Multiple replies have noted that institutions were being attacked & eroded under previous governments too.

That is entirely true. The most egregious example, of course, is Emergency under Indira Gandhi.

Leaders try to contest checks on their powers, at least at the margin.

16. Two elements I think one can look at to distinguish one would-be autocrat from the next:
a) Which institutions are they targeting?
b) How successful are they / have they been at weakening these institutions?

A successful autocrat is a bigger problem than an unsuccessful one.